{"id":544600,"date":"2022-03-13T03:49:27","date_gmt":"2022-03-13T03:49:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/13\/rising-food-prices-push-egypt-inflation-rate-to-31-month-high-in-february\/"},"modified":"2022-03-13T03:49:27","modified_gmt":"2022-03-13T03:49:27","slug":"rising-food-prices-push-egypt-inflation-rate-to-31-month-high-in-february","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/13\/rising-food-prices-push-egypt-inflation-rate-to-31-month-high-in-february\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising food prices push Egypt inflation rate to 31-month high in February"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> H<\/strong>eadline inflation <\/strong>reached a 31-month high in February<\/strong> as rising global prices caused the cost of local food items to accelerate at a rate not seen since 2018, according to official data out Thursday. Figures released by statistics agency Capmas showed that annual urban inflation rose to 8.8% last month from 7.3% in January<\/a> \u2014 its highest level since July 2019 \u2014 while monthly inflation hit a 16-month high of 1.6%.<\/p>\n

Food price inflation hit its highest level<\/strong> since November 2018<\/strong>, reaching 17.6% y-o-y from 12.4% in January, with vegetables, oil and meat seeing particularly large increases, according to the figures. Food and beverages constitute the biggest component of the basket of goods used to measure prices.<\/p>\n

The drivers:<\/strong> \u201cAlmost all food items recorded an acceleration in their annual price increases compared to January, as an expected outcome of seasonal factors, and \u2014 more importantly \u2014 the surge in global inflation pushed even higher by the flare-up between Russia and Ukraine in late February,\u201d Al Ahly Pharos analyst Esraa Ahmed wrote in a note.<\/p>\n

SOUND SMART-<\/strong> Back in 2018, inflation was supercharged by rising food prices<\/a> on the back of the government\u2019s rapid phase-out of energy subsidies<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Annual core inflation also continued to rise<\/strong>, hitting 7.2% from 6.3% in January, according to central bank data (pdf)<\/a>. Core inflation strips out volatile items such as food and fuel.<\/p>\n

The commodity price shocks pushing February\u2019s inflation up came before Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine unfolded<\/strong>, pushing up the price of strategic goods at home and globally on the back of the conflict. Global wheat prices have surged 48% over the past two weeks, adding more than USD 100 to the price per ton, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said last week<\/a>. Sugar prices have risen 7%, frozen meat by 11% and poultry by 10% over the same period, he said. Energy prices have also skyrocketed globally.<\/p>\n

Still within the target range (just):<\/strong> Despite the increase, the headline rate remains within the central bank\u2019s 7% (\u00b12%) target range.<\/p>\n

But don\u2019t <\/strong>expec<\/strong>t it to stay there in the coming months:<\/strong> Ramadan imports always fuel inflation, and it\u2019s not like the global commodities roller-coaster will end anytime soon.<\/p>\n

Heig<\/strong>htened inflation is pushing down our real interest rate: <\/strong>Egypt\u2019s inflation-adjusted interest rate has for many months been one of the highest in the world, attracting bns of USD of foreign portfolio flows into the EGP carry trade. The rate has fallen to around 2% following February\u2019s inflation data, though remains higher than most emerging markets, which are deep in negative territory, Allen Sandeep, director of Naeem Brokerage, told Bloomberg on Thursday (watch, runtime: 5:04<\/a>). Egypt\u2019s policy rate currently stands at 8.25%.<\/p>\n

This could make <\/strong>a rate hike this month more likely:<\/strong> After last month forecasting<\/a> a rate hike later in 2022, Ahly Pharos now expects the central bank to act when it meets in a few weeks. \u201cWe acknowledge all the costs particularly on the fiscal side of a rate hike, but the CBE does not support maintaining a negative real interest rate. We believe the CBE might prefer to hike rates by 150bps during the coming period, likely in its upcoming meeting scheduled on 24 March, as a natural response to the adverse global events,\u201d Ahmed wrote.<\/p>\n

A <\/strong>2022 rate hike was in the cards even before the Ukraine conflict<\/strong>, with several analysts telling us last month<\/a> that the central bank might tighten policy as central banks around the world begin to raise rates to curb heightened inflation.<\/p>\n

Nae<\/strong>em is also predicting a hike this month:<\/strong> \u201cWe expect a hike of about 50bps. That\u2019s a base case until now but we don\u2019t rule out a higher hike on the 24 March,\u201d Sandeep told Bloomberg, adding that the central bank will likely factor in the impact of the surge in wheat prices in the coming months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Headline inflation reached a 31-month high in February as rising global prices caused the cost of local food items to accelerate at a rate not seen since 2018, according to official data out Thursday. Figures released by statistics agency Capmas showed that annual urban inflation rose to 8.8% last month from 7.3% in January \u2014 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":544601,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,182,349,1341],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-544600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-russia-ukraine-conflict","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a850c3cb-222e-48ae-bd69-d1a536330c25","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/142.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[544594],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nRising food prices push Egypt inflation rate to 31-month high in February - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/13\/rising-food-prices-push-egypt-inflation-rate-to-31-month-high-in-february\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rising food prices push Egypt inflation rate to 31-month high in February\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Headline inflation reached a 31-month high in February as rising global prices caused the cost of local food items to accelerate at a rate not seen since 2018, according to official data out Thursday. 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Figures released on Thursday by state statistics agency Capmas showed that annual urban inflation jumped to 25.8% y-o-y in January, up from 21.3% the month\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/Market-1600.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578706,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/11\/inflation-hits-new-high-on-weaker-egp\/","url_meta":{"origin":544600,"position":4},"title":"Inflation hits new high on weaker EGP","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation rose to a fresh five-year high in December as the impact of successive currency devaluations continued to feed through to the economy. Figures released yesterday by state statistics agency Capmas showed annual urban inflation jumped to 21.3% in December, up from 18.7% the month before, driven by surging food\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/164.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557230,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/12\/inflation-continues-upwards-trend-in-august-hitting-5-7\/","url_meta":{"origin":544600,"position":5},"title":"Inflation continues upwards trend in August, hitting 5.7%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation hit its highest level in nine months in August on the back of rising food, fuel and transportation costs, according to figures released on Thursday. Headline urban inflation rose slightly to 5.7% in August, up from 5.4% in July, according to state statistics agency Capmas. That\u2019s the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/141.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=544600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544600\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/544594"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/544601"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=544600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=544600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=544600"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=544600"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=544600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}