{"id":544596,"date":"2022-03-13T03:49:27","date_gmt":"2022-03-13T03:49:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/13\/this-morning-the-imf-is-talking-with-the-madbouly-government-about-the-impact-of-war-in-ukraine-and-will-likely-downgrade-its-global-growth-forecast\/"},"modified":"2022-03-13T03:49:27","modified_gmt":"2022-03-13T03:49:27","slug":"this-morning-the-imf-is-talking-with-the-madbouly-government-about-the-impact-of-war-in-ukraine-and-will-likely-downgrade-its-global-growth-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/13\/this-morning-the-imf-is-talking-with-the-madbouly-government-about-the-impact-of-war-in-ukraine-and-will-likely-downgrade-its-global-growth-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: The IMF is talking with the Madbouly government about the impact of war in Ukraine \u2014 and will likely downgrade its global growth forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends, and welcome to a new week. <\/strong>It\u2019s another one of those \u201cdrinking from a fire hose\u201d mornings here at Enterprise World Headquarters, so let\u2019s jump right in:<\/p>\n

<\/a> Is the IMF in talks with the Madbouly government on how to cushion us<\/strong> from fallout <\/strong>from Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine? \u201cI worry for Egypt. If we have sustained high food and energy prices, how this is going to impact people in Egypt,\u201d International Monetary Fund (IMF) boss Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday<\/a> during a media roundtable on the war in Ukraine. \u201cWe are already engaged in discussion with Egypt on how to target vulnerable populations and vulnerable businesses<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n

What does that mean? <\/strong>Georgieva didn\u2019t unpack the remarks, but also noted in the discussion that our tourism industry will be sharply hit by the collapse of the Ukrainian and Russian markets. She did not make clear whether the IMF could offer further financial support to Egypt and didn\u2019t elaborate on the measures it is currently discussing with the government. Analysts at JPMorgan last week wrote<\/a> that there is a \u201creasonable probability\u201d we could open official talks with the IMF for more support in the event that \u201cmarket conditions continue to deteriorate.\u201d<\/p>\n

We have worked with the lender twice in the past six years.<\/strong> Once in 2016 when we took out a USD 12 bn facility<\/a> to back an ambitious program of economic reforms coinciding with the float of the EGP \u2014 and again after the onset of the covid-19 pandemic, when we borrowed USD 8 bn<\/a> to cushion the economic impact of the outbreak.<\/p>\n

MEANWHILE, AT THE EBRD- Maait calls on lenders for emergency support: <\/strong>International lenders should offer support to developing countries to help navigate the rise in food and energy prices, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait during talks with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) on Friday, according a ministry statement<\/a>. Maait said that economic reforms have made Egypt more resilient to turmoil in the global markets, but called for further support to help it manage the associated risks.<\/p>\n

\n

<\/a> IT\u2019S A BIT UGLY OUT THERE- The IMF will likely downgrade its growth <\/strong>outlook for the global economy <\/strong>due to the conflict in Ukraine when it publishes its World Economic Outlook next month, Georgieva also said on Thursday<\/a>. The shock in the commodities markets and the resulting inflation is causing global trade to contract and consumer and business confidence to dip, she said, warning that central banks may respond to accelerating inflation by raising interest rates more aggressively.<\/p>\n

The Fund has already revised downwards its 2022 growth projections once this year<\/strong>, cutting its forecast by 0.5 percentage points<\/a> to 4.4% in January due to continued supply chain disruptions, rising inflation and tightening monetary conditions.<\/p>\n

Analysts are starting to price in a US recession: <\/strong>\u201cOver time, the three biggest factors that tend to drive the U.S. economy into a recession are an inverted yield curve, some kind of commodity price shock or Fed tightening,\u201d one strategist told Bloomberg<\/a>. \u201cRight now, there appears to be potential for all three to happen at the same time.\u201d<\/p>\n

How will the Fed respond?<\/strong> The Federal Reserve will meet to review interest rates on Tuesday<\/a>and Wednesday<\/a> and is expected to still go ahead with its first rate hike in almost four years despite the ongoing market turmoil. Fed watchers aren\u2019t anticipating the central bank to go through with the half-point hike predicted prior to the conflict, suggesting instead it will raise rates by 25 bps as it tries to balance curbing inflation with tempering the increasing uncertainty in the markets.<\/p>\n

Pressure on the Fed to act intensified last week<\/strong> after fresh data<\/a> showed that inflation hit a new 40-year high in February. Consumer price inflation reached 7.9% last month, up from 7.5% in January, the highest level since 1982.<\/p>\n

\n

PSA #1- Egypt will report covid numbers weekly, instead of daily:<\/strong> The Health Ministry will no longer release covid data every day and will instead publish weekly updates every Saturday, it announced in a statement<\/a> yesterday. The decision was made due to the declining infection and hospitalization rates, the ministry said.<\/p>\n

We made that very <\/strong>same decision<\/a><\/strong> last week here at Enterprise HQ:<\/strong> We discontinued our two-year-old daily Covid Watch section after coming to the conclusion that the peak of this omicron-led wave is now well behind us. With about 50% of those eligible now vaccinated, we\u2019re thrilled to see Egypt making progress on jabs that was unimaginable a year ago.<\/p>\n

PSA #2- Get your coat on: It\u2019s going to be a windy, cold week <\/strong>\u2014 especially early in the morning and late at night \u2014 according to the Egyptian Meteorological Authority\u2019s<\/a> latest forecast. Expect highs of 19\u00b0C and lows of 9\u00b0C over the next five days in the capital and Alexandria.<\/p>\n

PSA #3- We have 20 days left until the start of Ramadan<\/strong>, ladies and gentlemen.<\/p>\n

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WHAT\u2019S HAPPENING TODAY-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Customs Authority won\u2019t accept paper manifests from the middle of this <\/strong>month:<\/strong> Shipping companies will no longer be able to submit paper manifests to the Customs Authority from mid-March, and will instead need to submit the documents digitally via the Nafeza customs platform<\/a>, according to a circular picked up by Al Mal<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Isn\u2019t it mid-March now?<\/strong> Yup, though the Customs Authority doesn\u2019t appear to have provided a specific date on which the decision will take effect.<\/p>\n

The Senate is set to continue debating the Unified Ins. Act today and tomorrow <\/strong>after a two week recess, Ahram Online<\/a> reports. The bill, which has been at least three years in the making, will make the Financial Regulatory Authority the primary regulator for the sector and make ins. compulsory for SMEs and freelancers, among other things.<\/p>\n

Aramco could soon be the world\u2019s most valuable company:<\/strong> Saudi Aramco is fast closing the gap with Apple to be crowned the world\u2019s most valuable company, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. Aramco\u2019s shares have risen 15% in less than three weeks as oil prices surge to their highest in more than a decade, while the iPhone maker\u2019s stock has sunk 9% this year on the back of a wider selloff in the tech market. Aramco \u2014 which last held the top market spot for a brief period in September 2020 \u2014 is now valued at some USD 2.2 tn, while Apple currently has a market cap of USD 2.5 tn.<\/p>\n

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-<\/strong><\/p>\n

AUC will hold its annual <\/strong>Business Forum<\/a><\/strong> from tomorrow, 14 March<\/strong>, to Thursday, <\/strong>17 March. <\/strong>The virtual forum will see founders, business players and policymakers from Egypt, Africa and other parts of the world discuss investing in tech startups, corporate learning and development, and the role of multi-stakeholder collaboration in fueling inclusive sustainable development, among other topics. Keynote speakers will include Planning Minister Hala El Said, and American economist and Nobel Prize Winner Abhijit Banerjee. You can register here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Green energy forum: <\/strong>The German Arab Chamber of Industry and Commerce is hosting the Egyptian German Green Energy Forum on Tuesday, 22 March. Planning Minister Hala El Said, Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk, and German Ambassador Frank Hartmann are among those slated to attend. The event runs 5:30-9pm CLT at the InterContinental Cairo Semiramis.<\/p>\n

Interest rates: <\/strong>The Central Bank of Egypt will hold its next monetary policy meeting<\/a> on Thursday, 24 March.<\/p>\n

Check out our full calendar on the web<\/a><\/strong> for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.<\/p>\n

enterprise<\/p>\n

*** It\u2019s What\u2019s Next day:<\/strong> We have our weekly deep-dive into what makes and shapes pre-listed companies and startups in Egypt, the UAE and KSA, touching on investment trends, future sector insights and growth journeys.<\/p>\n

In today\u2019s issue: How could digital labor platforms impact Egypt\u2019s informal sector? <\/strong>A new report finds that digital labor platforms could offer Egypt\u2019s informal workers the chance to receive better working conditions \u2014 but there are also plenty of wrinkles still to be ironed out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends, and welcome to a new week. It\u2019s another one of those \u201cdrinking from a fire hose\u201d mornings here at Enterprise World Headquarters, so let\u2019s jump right in: Is the IMF in talks with the Madbouly government on how to cushion us from fallout from Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine? \u201cI worry for Egypt. 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It\u2019s another one of those \u201cdrinking from a fire hose\u201d mornings here at Enterprise World Headquarters, so let\u2019s jump right in: Is the IMF in talks with the Madbouly government on how to cushion us from fallout from Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine? \u201cI worry for Egypt. 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The Fund revised downwards its growth projections for 2022 and 2023 to 3.6% in its latest World Economic Outlook \u2014 that\u2019s 0.8\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/335.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546412,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/16\/an-agreement-with-the-imf-is-coming-within-months\/","url_meta":{"origin":544596,"position":1},"title":"An agreement with the IMF is coming \u201cwithin months\u201d","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A fresh IMF program could be sealed in a few months: The government expects to reach an agreement with the IMF on a fresh support package \u201cwithin months\u201d, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said yesterday at a presser (watch, runtime:2:07:15).What IMF program? The government has been in talks with the IMF\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/185.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544686,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/16\/the-russia-ukraine-war-will-curb-our-economic-growth-and-hit-the-budget-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":544596,"position":2},"title":"The Russia-Ukraine war will curb our economic growth and hit the budget \u2013IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"In case Ahmed Kouchouk\u2019s warning wasn\u2019t enough, the IMF also thinks emerging markets including Egypt will need to hedge against the economic risks associated with the war in Ukraine, IMF Director for ME and Central Asia Jihad Azour told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 15:43). Egypt\u2019s budget will likely face pressure\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/202.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":548806,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/23\/imf-talks-in-final-stages-says-madbouly\/","url_meta":{"origin":544596,"position":3},"title":"IMF talks in \u201cfinal stages,\u201d says Madbouly","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 August 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt and the IMF are in the \u201cfinal stages\u201d of talks for a fresh facility to help shore up the economy, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said in a cabinet statement yesterday. The statement didn\u2019t provide any details about the talks. Madbouly\u2019s statement comes amid growing pressure on the EGP and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/354.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544556,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/09\/jpmorgan-thinks-there-is-a-reasonable-probability-that-we-could-start-talks-with-the-imf-on-another-assistance-program-if-global-conditions-continue-to-deteriorate\/","url_meta":{"origin":544596,"position":4},"title":"JPMorgan thinks there is a \u201creasonable probability\u201d that we could start talks with the IMF on another assistance program \u2014 if global conditions continue to deteriorate","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Will the Madbouly government open talks with the International Monetary Fund on an assistance package to help us get through the fallout from Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine? Analysts at JPMorgan think that there is a \u201creasonable probability\u201d in the event that \u201cmarket conditions continue to deteriorate, according to a note\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "EGYPT IN THE NEWS"","block_context":{"text":"EGYPT IN THE NEWS","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/egypt-in-the-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550798,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/27\/the-2022-imf-world-bank-spring-meetings-have-ended-here-are-the-key-takeaways\/","url_meta":{"origin":544596,"position":5},"title":"The 2022 IMF + World Bank Spring Meetings have ended: Here are the key takeaways","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"RECAP \u2014 The IMF \/ World Bank Spring: The war in Ukraine and ensuring food security in developing countries stole most of the attention last week as global financial chiefs descended upon Washington, DC for the IMF \/ World Bank\u2019s annual Spring Meetings. The general outlook this year was grim\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/528.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=544596"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544596\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/544594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=544596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=544596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=544596"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=544596"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=544596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}