{"id":544556,"date":"2022-03-09T03:32:54","date_gmt":"2022-03-09T03:32:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/09\/jpmorgan-thinks-there-is-a-reasonable-probability-that-we-could-start-talks-with-the-imf-on-another-assistance-program-if-global-conditions-continue-to-deteriorate\/"},"modified":"2022-03-09T03:32:54","modified_gmt":"2022-03-09T03:32:54","slug":"jpmorgan-thinks-there-is-a-reasonable-probability-that-we-could-start-talks-with-the-imf-on-another-assistance-program-if-global-conditions-continue-to-deteriorate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/09\/jpmorgan-thinks-there-is-a-reasonable-probability-that-we-could-start-talks-with-the-imf-on-another-assistance-program-if-global-conditions-continue-to-deteriorate\/","title":{"rendered":"JPMorgan thinks there is a \u201creasonable probability\u201d that we could start talks with the IMF on another assistance program \u2014 if global conditions continue to deteriorate"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Will the Madbouly government open talks with the International Monetary <\/strong>Fund on an assistance package to help us get through the fallout from Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine? <\/strong>Analysts at JPMorgan think that there is a \u201creasonable probability\u201d in the event that \u201cmarket conditions continue to deteriorate, according to a note to investors that Re<\/a>uters picked up on<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The problem: The war in Ukraine is turbo-charging global commodity prices<\/strong>, putting further pressure on state finances here and in emerging markets around the world. The prices of wheat and oil, which together make up the bulk of Egypt\u2019s import spend, have reached highs not seen in years. Egypt imports c. 80% of its wheat needs from Russia and Ukraine, and our tourism sector stands to lose out on revenues as holidaymakers from Russia and Ukraine drop.<\/p>\n

Who\u2019s saying what: <\/strong>Fitch said<\/a> in December (before the war broke out) that Egypt could require another IMF programme in the event of a liquidity squeeze, and top cabinet members including Mohamed Maait, Ali El Moselhy and Tarek El Molla (here<\/a> and here<\/a>) have been very blunt in public that Egypt is being uniquely squeezed as a result of the war. The IMF was tight-lipped in December when Masrawy<\/a> asked about whether Egypt would sign up for a new assistance program, saying the ball was squarely in Cairo\u2019s court.<\/p>\n

BACKGROUND- We have turned to the lender twice in the past six years.<\/strong> Once in 2016 when we took out a USD 12 bn facility<\/a> to back an ambitious program of economic reforms coinciding with the float of the EGP \u2014 and again after the onset of the covid-19 pandemic, when we borrowed USD 8 bn<\/a> to cushion the economic impact of the outbreak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Will the Madbouly government open talks with the International Monetary Fund on an assistance package to help us get through the fallout from Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine? Analysts at JPMorgan think that there is a \u201creasonable probability\u201d in the event that \u201cmarket conditions continue to deteriorate, according to a note to investors that Reuters picked […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7233],"tags":[317,72,1318,272,1095],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-544556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-egypt-in-the-news","tag-commodities","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fiscal-policy","tag-imf","tag-russia-ukraine-war","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"ab4df79a-d6f5-4aef-a1c0-488ab8136339","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[544541],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nJPMorgan thinks there is a \u201creasonable probability\u201d that we could start talks with the IMF on another assistance program \u2014 if global conditions continue to deteriorate - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/09\/jpmorgan-thinks-there-is-a-reasonable-probability-that-we-could-start-talks-with-the-imf-on-another-assistance-program-if-global-conditions-continue-to-deteriorate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"JPMorgan thinks there is a \u201creasonable probability\u201d that we could start talks with the IMF on another assistance program \u2014 if global conditions continue to deteriorate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Will the Madbouly government open talks with the International Monetary Fund on an assistance package to help us get through the fallout from Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine? 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It\u2019s another one of those \u201cdrinking from a fire hose\u201d mornings here at Enterprise World Headquarters, so let\u2019s jump right in: Is the IMF in talks with the Madbouly government on how to cushion us from fallout from Russia\u2019s invasion of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544866,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/24\/here-we-go-egypt-imf-confirm-talks-over-new-program\/","url_meta":{"origin":544556,"position":1},"title":"Here we go: Egypt, IMF confirm talks over new program","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s official: The government has requested support from the IMF to mitigate the impact of the war in Ukraine on its economy. Statements from the IMF and cabinet yesterday confirmed that the two sides are in talks on a new program, though it remains unclear what kind of assistance the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/336.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":549625,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/25\/it-could-take-another-month-or-two-to-finalize-imf-support-maait\/","url_meta":{"origin":544556,"position":2},"title":"It could take another month or two to finalize IMF support -Maait","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 September 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Talks for an IMF facility could wrap in another month or two, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Bloomberg (watch, runtime: 14:28) in a wide-ranging interview that tackled everything from the IMF loan to Egypt\u2019s rising debt levels, devaluation of the EGP, and future bond issuances.Maait again refrained from providing a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/365.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":545173,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/09\/this-evening-lekela-power-could-invest-up-to-usd-1-bn-in-egypt-in-next-four-years-fresh-sanctions-civilian-evacuations-dominate-russia-ukraine-news\/","url_meta":{"origin":544556,"position":3},"title":"THIS EVENING: Lekela Power could invest up to USD 1 bn in Egypt in next four years + Fresh sanctions, civilian evacuations dominate Russia-Ukraine news","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Happy almost-THURSDAY, wonderful people. We have a relatively quiet news cycle here at home, coupled with the mandatory developments on the war in Ukraine as we collectively hold our breaths on more potential knock-on economic effects.THE BIG STORY TODAY Lekela Power is eyeing investing up to USD 1 bn in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544835,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/23\/more-chatter-that-we-are-indeed-going-to-talk-to-the-imf-about-a-new-program\/","url_meta":{"origin":544556,"position":4},"title":"More chatter that we are, indeed, going to talk to the IMF about a new program","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"More analysts are speculating that thefiscal stimulus package and monetary policy measures announced Monday will pave the way for a fresh IMF program as the ongoing commodity price shock puts strain on the economy. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, sporadic reports that the government is in discussions\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/310.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550798,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/27\/the-2022-imf-world-bank-spring-meetings-have-ended-here-are-the-key-takeaways\/","url_meta":{"origin":544556,"position":5},"title":"The 2022 IMF + World Bank Spring Meetings have ended: Here are the key takeaways","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"RECAP \u2014 The IMF \/ World Bank Spring: The war in Ukraine and ensuring food security in developing countries stole most of the attention last week as global financial chiefs descended upon Washington, DC for the IMF \/ World Bank\u2019s annual Spring Meetings. The general outlook this year was grim\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/528.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=544556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544556\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/544541"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=544556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=544556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=544556"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=544556"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=544556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}