{"id":544465,"date":"2022-03-06T03:35:12","date_gmt":"2022-03-06T03:35:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/06\/the-biggest-global-commodities-shock-in-decades-is-inbound\/"},"modified":"2022-03-06T03:35:12","modified_gmt":"2022-03-06T03:35:12","slug":"the-biggest-global-commodities-shock-in-decades-is-inbound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/06\/the-biggest-global-commodities-shock-in-decades-is-inbound\/","title":{"rendered":"The biggest global commodities shock in decades is inbound"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a><strong> The world is facing the biggest commodities shock in decades<\/strong> as conflict in Ukraine cuts off a quarter of the world\u2019s wheat supply and western nations try to isolate Russia \u2014 the world\u2019s second-largest commodities producer \u2014 from the global economy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A snapshot of the global commodities markets last week<\/strong>, courtesy of Bloomberg (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-03-05\/russia-energy-chaos-triggers-the-biggest-market-shock-in-decades?sref=mmeFTDW1\">here<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-03-04\/wheat-surges-to-fresh-14-year-high-on-mounting-supply-fears?sref=mmeFTDW1\">here<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-03-04\/industrial-metals-have-never-risen-this-much-in-a-week-before?sref=mmeFTDW1\">here<\/a>):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Bloomberg\u2019s raw materials index saw its largest weekly gain<\/strong> since at least 1960;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Brent futures rose almost 20%<\/strong> to near USD 120 a barrel \u2014 its highest level since 2012 and almost <strong>double the price forecast in Egypt\u2019s 2021-2022 budget<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li><strong>European natural gas<\/strong> prices hit new records;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Metals saw one the biggest weekly gains on record<\/strong>, with aluminum hitting all-time highs and nickel and zinc the highest in 10+ years;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Coal prices spiked<\/strong> 80%;<\/li>\n<li><strong>US wheat futures surged<\/strong> more than 40% to a 14-year high.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>From Goldman Sachs\u2019 Department of the Obvious:<\/strong> \u201cYou don\u2019t shut down the second-largest commodity producer in the world and not expect bad things to happen,\u201d Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman, told Bloomberg.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Global food prices hit all-time highs in February \u2014 and that was before Russian shells <\/strong><strong>started landing in Kyiv:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fao.org\/worldfoodsituation\/foodpricesindex\/en\/\">New figures<\/a> from the UN\u2019s Food and Agriculture Organization yesterday showed that food prices hit a record high in February, surpassing the previous record set in February 2011.<\/p>\n<p><strong>We don\u2019t mean to beat a dead horse, but:<\/strong> Wheat and oil are both vital commodities here in Egypt. The country imports some 60-80% of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia, whose grains \u2014 which account for around a quarter of global supply \u2014 have been all but removed from the market.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Finance Minister Mohamed Maait acknowledged the situation last week<\/strong>, telling <a href=\"https:\/\/www.almasryalyoum.com\/news\/details\/2540936\">Al Masry Al<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.almasryalyoum.com\/news\/details\/2540936\">Youm<\/a> that the Egyptian economy is inevitably going to suffer the consequences of the war. The surge in oil prices \u2014 which hit USD 118.11 over the weekend \u2014 is not \u201cgood news\u201d for the economy, he said, pointing out that Egypt currently imports more than 120 mn barrels of crude a year. The minister also highlighted the war\u2019s impact on the domestic tourism industry, saying that Russia and Ukraine account for 35-40% of tourists at Egyptian resorts.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Maait moved to calm fears over events in the wheat markets<\/strong>, suggesting that Egypt\u2019s stockpile, a bigger <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/74c0dedf-7743-40b0-8037-9a3fd5e235d1\">domestic harvest<\/a>, and new suppliers will mitigate the incoming pressures. The country currently has enough wheat in reserve to sustain the country for 4.5 months and the local harvest will provide a further 4 months\u2019 worth, he said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The same message was relayed by Deputy Supply Minister Ibrahim Ashmawy<\/strong> who told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/ukraine-crisis-throws-egypts-wheat-purchases-into-doubt-2022-03-03\/\">Reuters<\/a> on Thursday that Egypt\u2019s stockpile means it doesn\u2019t need to rush to find new suppliers. This came as traders told the newswire that two cargoes carrying 120k tonnes of Egypt-bound wheat were being held up in Ukrainian ports. State grains buyer GASC, which has already <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/16670d8f-ff7e-4942-8c23-7f16a463f32f\">canceled two tenders<\/a> since the beginning of the war, was said to have agreed to an extended shipment deadline and is offering more flexibility over documentation. \u201cWe don't know what's going to happen to the vessels, but we do have our negotiations,\u201d Ashmawy said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What would happen if suppliers don\u2019t meet the extended deadline? <\/strong>Suppliers are obligated to look for an alternative origin for the purchase if they fail to execute the purchase themselves, since GASC contracts do not include a force majeure clause, traders said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Egypt is eyeing the EU for future imports,<\/strong> but \u201cwill not exclude other exporters like the US, Kazakhstan, Romania,\" Ashmawy added.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Shrinking supply and rising prices is putting more pressure on the state to act on <\/strong><strong>subsidies:<\/strong> The Supply Ministry is still considering several scenarios for tapering bread subsidies for the first time in decades, with a final decision on how they will be reworked expected by <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/217bd2c8-c468-4975-b723-ba0e372c9b2c\">the end of March<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The world is facing the biggest commodities shock in decades as conflict in Ukraine cuts off a quarter of the world\u2019s wheat supply and western nations try to isolate Russia \u2014 the world\u2019s second-largest commodities producer \u2014 from the global economy. A snapshot of the global commodities markets last week, courtesy of Bloomberg (here, here, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":544466,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7305],"tags":[317,93,72,182,91,1280,563],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-544465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commodities","tag-commodities","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-ukraine-conflict","tag-wheat","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7ed46039-3d92-4d6c-acc9-0261343b42c2","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/51.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[544461],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The biggest global commodities shock in decades is inbound - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/06\/the-biggest-global-commodities-shock-in-decades-is-inbound\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The biggest global commodities shock in decades is inbound\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The world is facing the biggest commodities shock in decades as conflict in Ukraine cuts off a quarter of the world\u2019s wheat supply and western nations try to isolate Russia \u2014 the world\u2019s second-largest commodities producer \u2014 from the global economy. 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State grain buyer GASC had been allocated some EGP 87 bn in this fiscal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;FOOD SECURITY&quot;","block_context":{"text":"FOOD SECURITY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/food-security\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546454,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/17\/the-local-wheat-harvest-isnt-costing-as-much-as-we-expected\/","url_meta":{"origin":544465,"position":1},"title":"The local wheat harvest isn\u2019t costing as much as we expected","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"We\u2019re spending less on local wheat than previously thought: The government has so far paid EGP 8.5 bn for some 1.85 mn tons of local wheat since the start of the harvest season at the beginning of April, state news agency MENA quoted Egyptian Holding Company for Silos and Storage\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/214.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543814,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/20\/we-just-bought-tons-of-romanian-wheat-in-a-packed-tender-even-though-ukraines-bid-was-cheaper\/","url_meta":{"origin":544465,"position":2},"title":"We just bought tons of Romanian wheat in a packed tender \u2014 even though Ukraine\u2019s bid was cheaper","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) just bought 180k tons of Romanian wheat for April shipment in a tender that may help ease policymakers\u2019 concerns about spiking food prices. Seventeen global suppliers took part in last week\u2019s tender \u2014 the most in at least five years \u2014 indicating that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/273.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":648191,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/05\/30\/egypt-made-up-46-of-all-ukrainian-wheat-exports-in-april\/","url_meta":{"origin":544465,"position":3},"title":"Egypt made up 46% of all Ukrainian wheat exports in April","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 May 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Ukraine shipments of wheat to Egypt have reached a high in April, with the country exporting 553K tonnes of wheat to us in April alone. This constituted 46% of total wheat exports by the Ukraine for that month and the largest volume since October 2013, reports UkrAgroConsult.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Basic Materials + Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Basic Materials + Commodities","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/basic-materials-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543689,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/14\/ukraine-crisis-spurs-uncertainty-in-wheat-market-el-moselhy\/","url_meta":{"origin":544465,"position":4},"title":"Ukraine crisis spurs \u201cuncertainty\u201d in wheat market -El Moselhy","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Rising tensions in the tug-of-war between Russia and Ukraine are causing \u201cuncertainty\u201d in the wheat market, Al Shorouk quoted Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy as saying. While the Madbouly government has previously suggested it had no plans to start hedging wheat, El Moselhy is quoted as having said a decision\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/181.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544643,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/14\/the-commodity-price-shock-is-still-front-and-center-in-the-foreign-press\/","url_meta":{"origin":544465,"position":5},"title":"The commodity price shock is still front and center in the foreign press","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The commodity price shock and its effect on Egypt\u2019s food supply is still dominating coverage in the foreign press: The Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times and Bloomberg all mention Egypt in their latest updates on how the Russia-Ukraine conflict is upending the global food supply.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;EGYPT IN THE NEWS&quot;","block_context":{"text":"EGYPT IN THE NEWS","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/egypt-in-the-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544465","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=544465"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544465\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/544461"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/544466"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=544465"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=544465"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=544465"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=544465"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=544465"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}