{"id":544160,"date":"2022-02-14T13:44:46","date_gmt":"2022-02-14T13:44:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/14\/enterprise-explains-the-russia-ukraine-crisis\/"},"modified":"2022-02-14T13:44:46","modified_gmt":"2022-02-14T13:44:46","slug":"enterprise-explains-the-russia-ukraine-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/14\/enterprise-explains-the-russia-ukraine-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Enterprise Explains: The Russia-Ukraine Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Enterprise Explains: The Russia-Ukraine crisis. <\/strong>Since the start of the year, hostilities between Russia and the West have escalated as Moscow amasses 130k troops<\/a> on its border with Ukraine and Western capitals warn of an imminent invasion. Russia is demanding that Ukraine be barred from Nato membership while Western governments insist that Russian troops must pull back from the border. After weeks of shuttle diplomacy failed to ease tensions, the US is now claiming<\/a> that Russia could attack Ukraine \u201cany day now\u201d and embassies are evacuating staff<\/a>, raising fears that a major conflict may be about to break out in Europe with massive humanitarian consequences, as well as a huge impact on the global economy.<\/p>\n

First thing\u2019s first, this crisis is anything but new:<\/strong> To locate the real roots of the crisis we need to go back to the end of the Cold War, when Eastern European countries gained their independence following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. A verbal promise<\/a> made by the US to the new Russian Federation that Nato wouldn\u2019t expand eastwards was supposed to assuage Moscow\u2019s security concerns and lay the foundations for post-Cold War security on the continent. This didn\u2019t last very long. Within a year, Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia had signaled their intent to join the military alliance and by 2004, it had swelled to include 10 countries that were formerly within the USSR\u2019s sphere of influence.<\/p>\n

Enter Ukraine:<\/strong> Ukraine has long aspired to become a Nato member, and in 2008 officially applied to join the alliance, much to Russia\u2019s chagrin. Though its bid was rejected, Nato countries signaled that Kiev would eventually be admitted to the organization, which would give it the all-important Article 5 protection<\/a> against Russian aggression. Moscow and the EU have also been playing tug of war for influence over the country, with Brussels trying to negotiate its entry into the bloc and Russia wielding its economic leverage<\/a> to prevent it from doing so.<\/p>\n

The spark:<\/strong> It was the breakdown in talks between Ukraine and the EU that set us on a direct path to the current conflict. Under pressure from Russia<\/a>, in late 2013 then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych abruptly ended talks with the EU, spurring the mass protests<\/a> that in 2014 led to the downfall of his administration and the creation of a new, pro-European government in Kiev. Russia responded by annexing the Crimean peninsula<\/a> and sponsoring a separatist movement in the country\u2019s eastern Donbas region, which sparked months of armed conflict between the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed militias.<\/p>\n

A frozen conflict:<\/strong> The ceasefire agreement brokered by France and Germany in 2014 succeeded in ending direct clashes between the two sides but subsequent attempts to decide the future of the Donbas have made little progress and the conflict has remained frozen ever since. The roadmap laid out in follow-up talks in 2015, otherwise known as Minsk 2, is yet to be implemented and has failed to reconcile<\/a> Ukraine and Russia\u2019s competing demands: Ukraine wants full control over its territory, and Russia wants Kiev to devolve much of its powers to the self-proclaimed republics as well as write a neutrality clause into its constitution that would prevent it from joining Nato or the EU.<\/p>\n

Renewed tensions:<\/strong> Since being elected in 2019, Ukraine\u2019s comedian-cum-president Volodymyr Zelensky has taken an explicitly anti-Russian posture<\/a> and has sought to accelerate the country\u2019s entrance into Nato, leading to renewed tensions with Russia, increasing instability in the Donbas, and the build-up of troops on the border.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s demands:<\/strong> Now with thousands of troops stationed around Ukraine, in December Russia issued a list of demands<\/a> to Nato that amounted to nothing less than a renegotiation of the entire security order in Eastern Europe. In a draft treaty, Moscow demanded that Nato provide it with legal security ensurances that would block Ukraine from ever becoming a member of the alliance, and withdraw Nato troops from Eastern Europe, which the US and Nato have refused to discuss<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Which brings us to today:<\/strong> Tensions have escalated since the beginning of the year as Russia refuses to withdraw its troops and Western capitals decline to discuss its demands. US and UK officials have briefed repeatedly over past weeks that Moscow is planning to invade, stage \u201cfalse flag\u201d operations to justify an attack, and mount disinformation campaigns to destabilize the country, and have responded by sending arms and military advisors into Ukraine, and deploying troops to Nato countries. For its part, Russia has branded these warnings as \u201chysteria\u201d and insists that it has no plans to invade, even as it holds large-scale military drills<\/a> in neighboring Belarus. Still, several nations have nowevacuated non-essential diplomatic staff<\/a> from Kiev and are advising citizens to leave the country ahead of a potential conflict.<\/p>\n

The chances of an armed conflict between two major powers remain low:<\/strong> The Biden administration has been clear<\/a> that they will not meet military force with military force should Russia invade.<\/p>\n

But the impact of a conflict on the global economy could be serious:<\/strong> Biden has pledged that the West would respond \u201cdecisively\u201d to any invasion, which could include financial sanctions on Russia\u2019s biggest banks and an export ban on advanced technologies. Russia is a major global economy, a major oil producer, and a major trader, which means any nuclear options \u2014 such as an oil and gas embargo or financial sanctions \u2014 would likely backfire on the US and other economies, analysts have warned<\/a>, especially as the energy crisis and growing inflationary pressures continue to put pressure on the global economy.<\/p>\n

Egypt won\u2019t be exempt from this: <\/strong>Conflict in Ukraine could have<\/a> an impact on Egypt and other wheat dependent countries in MENA, analysts say. Egypt is the largest consumer of Ukrainian wheat, last year purchasing the equivalent of around 14% of its total wheat consumption from the eastern European country. Most Ukrainian wheat is grown in the east of the country, which also happens to be the area most likely to be hit by conflict, setting the stage for huge falls in production and supply shortfalls internationally should tensions spill over.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Enterprise Explains: The Russia-Ukraine crisis. Since the start of the year, hostilities between Russia and the West have escalated as Moscow amasses 130k troops on its border with Ukraine and Western capitals warn of an imminent invasion. Russia is demanding that Ukraine be barred from Nato membership while Western governments insist that Russian troops must […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":544161,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8794],"tags":[695,633,305,270,304,117,7263],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-544160","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-enterprise-explains","tag-enterprise-explains","tag-enterprisepm","tag-nato","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-us","tag-war","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"1543446d-39c1-4ee0-baf7-63fcdcb0c433","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/472.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[544151],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEnterprise Explains: The Russia-Ukraine Crisis - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/14\/enterprise-explains-the-russia-ukraine-crisis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Enterprise Explains: The Russia-Ukraine Crisis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Enterprise Explains: The Russia-Ukraine crisis. 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Turkey is acting as a mediator between the two sides and earlier\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WAR WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"WAR WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/war-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544925,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/28\/ukraine-ready-to-discuss-neutrality-territory-ahead-of-russia-peace-talks-zelensky\/","url_meta":{"origin":544160,"position":3},"title":"Ukraine ready to discuss neutrality, territory ahead of Russia peace talks -Zelensky","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Zelensky signals compromise ahead of new round of peace talks: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reiterated willingness to declare neutrality and potentially give up sovereignty over some parts of the country ahead of three days of peace talks, which start today in Turkey, France24 reports. \u201cSecurity guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WAR WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"WAR WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/war-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/373.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":580680,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/12\/from-covid-19-to-the-russia-ukraine-war-the-bbcs-war-on-truth-unpacks-conspiracy-theories\/","url_meta":{"origin":544160,"position":4},"title":"From covid-19 to the Russia-Ukraine war, the BBC\u2019s War on Truth unpacks conspiracy theories","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"? EARS TO THE GROUND- Separating fact from fiction: BBC disinformation reporter Marianna Spring investigates conspiracy theories surrounding the war on War on Truth. She talks to all sorts people caught up in the parallel information war unfolding, from a man named Rob who believes that covid-19 and the war\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "ENTERPRISE RECOMMENDS"","block_context":{"text":"ENTERPRISE RECOMMENDS","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/enterprise-recommends-2\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544693,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/16\/optimism-fades-in-ukraine-peace-talks\/","url_meta":{"origin":544160,"position":5},"title":"Optimism fades in Ukraine peace talks","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Optimism fades in Ukraine peace talks: The latest news out of the ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine isn\u2019t quite as optimistic as it was a few days ago, with a senior Ukrainian aide saying yesterday that there are \u201cfundamental contradictions\u201d between the two sides. Writing on Twitter, presidential\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WAR WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"WAR WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/war-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/205.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544160","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=544160"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544160\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/544151"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/544161"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=544160"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=544160"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=544160"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=544160"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=544160"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}