{"id":543687,"date":"2022-02-14T03:52:04","date_gmt":"2022-02-14T03:52:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/14\/this-morning-the-egypt-petroleum-show-kicks-off-today-a-make-or-break-week-for-ukraine\/"},"modified":"2022-02-14T03:52:04","modified_gmt":"2022-02-14T03:52:04","slug":"this-morning-the-egypt-petroleum-show-kicks-off-today-a-make-or-break-week-for-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/14\/this-morning-the-egypt-petroleum-show-kicks-off-today-a-make-or-break-week-for-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: The Egypt Petroleum Show kicks off today + A make-or-break week for Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to our first slow news day in more than <\/strong>two weeks<\/strong> \u2014 we consider it our just recompense for having survived the vicissitudes of a news cycle that\u2019s been rolling by in fast-forward for to long now..<\/p>\n

<\/a> We expect to be talking about oil and gas quite a lot in the coming days as <\/strong>the <\/strong>Egypt Petroleum Show<\/a><\/strong> (Egyps) gets underway<\/strong> today at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. The event runs through Wednesday. Speakers include OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo and International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol. Also speaking: Our ministers of oil, finance and the environment (among other government officials), as well as energy and oil ministers from countries including the UAE, Jordan, Yemen, Israel, Cyprus and Greece. Top execs from major oil and energy firms will also be in attendance.<\/p>\n

There will be lots of noise about Egypt as the natural energy hub <\/strong>of the Eastern Med, a notion that longtime readers will recall we\u2019ve been championing for years \u2014 and that has new relevance with Europe facing the prospect of a longer-term energy crunch thanks to tensions with Moscow. (More on those tensions below.)<\/p>\n

On the other end of the \u201cgood for the planet\u201d scale: We now have tariffs for charging <\/strong>electric vehicles<\/strong> after the Madbouly government published its rate sheet in the Official Gazette. We\u2019ll have a deep dive into the details tomorrow in our Going Green vertical, presented each week thanks to the support of our friends at Infinity.<\/p>\n

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THE BIG STORY TODAY here at home? Policymakers are confirming what we\u2019ve been <\/strong>saying for weeks <\/strong>here at Enterprise World Headquarters: War between Ukraine and Russia would not be good for the global wheat market. We\u2019re the world\u2019s largest importer of the grain. What\u2019s more: They\u2019re also two of our most important tourism markets (in volume terms, though admittedly not margin) \u2014 Russia is a key security and defense partner.<\/p>\n

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- Is the Ukraine crisis coming to a head? <\/strong>This week could decide whether tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine bubble over into armed conflict, Bloomberg<\/a> and the Associated Press<\/a> are reporting this morning. US President Joe Biden promised a \u201crapid response\u201d if Russia does invade its neighbor in a phone call with Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday, as White House advisers continued to brief that Russia could create a surprise \u201cpretext\u201d to invade Ukraine any day now. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will head to Moscow today before meeting with Zelensky for talks on Tuesday for a last-ditch effort at diplomacy. More than a dozen countries have moved to pull non-essential diplomatic staff<\/a> from Ukraine, with some airlines going as far as canceling flights<\/a> to the country. The Wall Street Journal<\/a>, Financial Times<\/a>, and Reuters<\/a> have more.<\/p>\n

Will there be war? <\/strong>Some pundits in our socials are suggesting that Putin doesn\u2019t need to invade to accomplish his goals: Taking the threat right up to the red line (but not crossing it) has already done enough to draw a line under his \u201csecurity sphere\u201d and open sew discord among Western allies, they suggest.<\/p>\n

The prospect of war in Ukraine and the wheat crunch come at the same time as the <\/strong>global commodity shortage is back in the headlines. <\/strong>Stockpiles of goods from copper to coffee are at historically low levels, threatening further inflationary pressures, the Financial Times<\/a> reports. Raw materials, food staples, metals and energy futures have all slipped into backwardation \u2014 when spot prices exceed futures prices, signaling scarcity. Traders are paying over the odds to secure immediate metal supply, while copper stocks at major commodity exchanges sit at less than a week\u2019s worth of global consumption. Add to that an oil supply squeeze that has pushed prices to record highs (now being further boosted<\/a> by geopolitical tensions in Ukraine), and last year\u2019s alarm bells over a \u201ccommodities supercycle\u201d are ringing in our heads again.<\/p>\n

The good news: We aren\u2019t set to see global shortages (yet).<\/strong> \u201cThe risk of shortages by the end of winter is remote at this point,\u201d one analyst says. \u201cBut the market will still need to secure significant supply through the summer in order to prevent those concerns coming back next winter.\u201d<\/p>\n

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PSA #1- Are you about to quote Forbes \u201cmagazine\u201d in a presentation or proposal? Don\u2019t. <\/strong>Stop. Go read this. Then think again.<\/a> Why? It\u2019s not looking much like a real media outlet these days as much as it does an unedited platform for \u201cscams, grift, and bad journalism\u201d<\/strong> writes the founder of Harvard\u2019s Nieman Lab. If it\u2019s tagged as being written by a \u201ccontributor\u201d? It\u2019s someone\u2019s personal blog, not an edited work of journalism.<\/p>\n

PSA #2- Are you running Zoom on a Mac? It might be listening to you right now<\/strong>, warns<\/a>Macworld<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What to try instead? <\/strong>Google\u2019s video and voice conference stuff is better, we think (it\u2019s called Google Meet\u2026 we think? They rebrand this particular service more frequently than Amer Group changes CEOs). Microsoft\u2019s Teams isn\u2019t bad at all, just ugly as sin.<\/p>\n

From the Dumpster fire that is our social media:<\/strong><\/p>\n