{"id":543023,"date":"2022-01-02T13:41:19","date_gmt":"2022-01-02T13:41:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/02\/egypt-to-ride-the-recovery-wave-as-world-economy-set-to-surpass-usd-100-tn-in-2022\/"},"modified":"2022-01-02T13:41:19","modified_gmt":"2022-01-02T13:41:19","slug":"egypt-to-ride-the-recovery-wave-as-world-economy-set-to-surpass-usd-100-tn-in-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/02\/egypt-to-ride-the-recovery-wave-as-world-economy-set-to-surpass-usd-100-tn-in-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt to ride the recovery wave as world economy set to surpass USD 100 tn in 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Global GDP is set to surpass a record USD 100 tn in 2022, with growth expected to<\/strong> hit 4.2% this year<\/strong>, according to the World Economic League Table (WELT)<\/a> from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). That\u2019s two years earlier than the UK-based think tank previously expected the global economy to reach the USD 100 tn milestone and the GDP growth rate is a significant upward revision from its prior estimate of 3.4%.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s driving the momentum? In a word, vaccines<\/strong>, which are helping to drive a faster than expected recovery from the pandemic. CEBR had previously projected that global GDP would contract 4.4% in 2021, but the year ended with GDP falling a less severe 3.2%. Since December 2020, when the first vaccine was administered to a 90-year-old British woman, over 58% of the global population has received at least one dose of the inoculation, according to Our World in Data<\/a>. The rapid rollout of jabs has allowed several countries to enter a post-pandemic recovery phase, CEBR says.<\/p>\n

How does this stack up against other forecasts?<\/strong> The IMF is slightly more bullish than CEBR, penciling in 4.9% growth this year in its latest World Economic Outlook report<\/a>. The lender expects global growth will taper down beyond next year to average at 3.3% in the medium term. The World Bank\u2019s June global growth outlook (pdf)<\/a> was almost identical to CEBR, with 4.3% forecasted growth.<\/p>\n

But inflation remains a thorn in our side: <\/strong>It is essential that nations find ways to cope with inflation or else the world will need to \u201cbrace itself for a recession in 2023 or 2024,\u201d the report warns. If conditions continue as they are, GDP growth will clock in at less than 1% in 2023 before recovering slightly in 2024 to 2%. Inflation skyrocketed this year due to shortages of commodities, finished goods, shipping space and fossil fuels, leading to what analysts now call \u201cpersistent inflation<\/a>.\u201d Wage inflation has also contributed to the problem amid the so-called \u201cGreat Resignation<\/a>\u201d which occurred during labor shortages.<\/p>\n

Fiscal consolidation will ease inflation, but monetary austerity is also necessary<\/strong>, especially as the CEBR estimates that there is a monetary overhang of 15-20% around the world. Central banks need to reduce monetary expansion and raise interest rates, among other counter inflationary monetary actions in the coming period. The CEBR expects asset prices to fall by around 10-15% this year, which could also help avoid an inflation-fueled slowdown in the global economy without nations needing to resort to extreme austerity measures. The US has already led this movement \u2014 scheduling three interest rate hikes<\/a> in 2022 \u2014 with China expected to soon follow and the European Central Bank signaling it will do the same next year<\/a>. Emerging markets are likely to get burnt along the way, the report believes, echoing warnings from several institutions such as S&P Ratings<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Where does Egypt fall in all of this?<\/strong> In terms of GDP growth, Egypt is expected to rank #33 out of 191 nations in 2022, with a GDP of EGP 4.34 tn, according to WELT. The rankings take into account everything from the availability of tech and energy to environmental risks. In 2026, Egypt will inch up to #32 before falling to #36 in 2031 and #38 in 2036. \u201cCEBR forecasts that the annual rate of GDP growth will accelerate to an average of 5.4% between 2022 and 2026, before slowing to an average of 4.2% per year between 2027 and 2036,\u201d the report added.<\/p>\n

Unemployment and public sector debt are seen as our biggest challenges: <\/strong>Egypt\u2019s high unemployment rate could deter consumer spending-driven economic growth, while confidence, investment, and fiscal headroom in the country have been negatively impacted by the level of public sector debt, according to WELT. Egypt\u2019s unemployment rate rose to 7.5%<\/a> in 3Q2021 as the job market failed to absorb fresh grads. Meanwhile, the country\u2019s fiscal deficit currently stands at 7.3% of GDP. These factors \u201cpaint a worrying picture for the country's fiscal stability in the coming years,\u201d the report added.<\/p>\n

Who\u2019s #1?<\/strong> No surprises there \u2014 the US will likely lead world GDP in 2022 and 2026 with a GDP of USD 20 tn and USD 21 tn respectively. China comes in second place in 2022, followed by Japan, UK, Germany, France, and India.<\/p>\n

But China might soon eclipse the US in 2031<\/strong> and retain the top spot through to 2036. The think tank had previously forecasted that Beijing would overtake Washington in 2028 in the previous edition of WELT, but pushed back the outlook by two years to take into account the US\u2019s faster than anticipated growth this year. China\u2019s GDP is expected to reach RMB 158 tn in 2031 (equivalent to USD 27 tn) and RMB 190 tn in 2036 (or USD 36 tn).<\/p>\n

BONUS- You might want to thank Mama and Baba for pushing you to get an engineering degree after all<\/strong>, with the report suggesting that in 10 years, the world will need double the number of engineers and technologists to meet the demand of rapid technological development.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global GDP is set to surpass a record USD 100 tn in 2022, with growth expected to hit 4.2% this year, according to the World Economic League Table (WELT) from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). That\u2019s two years earlier than the UK-based think tank previously expected the global economy to reach the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":543024,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7250],"tags":[107,104,633,348,182,643,527],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-543023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-macro-picture","tag-covid-19","tag-economy","tag-enterprisepm","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-macro-picture","tag-pandemic","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"6b99330c-1c84-4ace-a32b-4c991388a863","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/374.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[543014],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt to ride the recovery wave as world economy set to surpass USD 100 tn in 2022 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/02\/egypt-to-ride-the-recovery-wave-as-world-economy-set-to-surpass-usd-100-tn-in-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt to ride the recovery wave as world economy set to surpass USD 100 tn in 2022\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Global GDP is set to surpass a record USD 100 tn in 2022, with growth expected to hit 4.2% this year, according to the World Economic League Table (WELT) from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). 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The Global Debt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/2601.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567209,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/15\/fx-debt-pushes-em-debt-to-record-usd-72-5-tn-in-3q2019-iif\/","url_meta":{"origin":543023,"position":1},"title":"FX debt pushes EM debt to record USD 72.5 tn in 3Q2019 -IIF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Foreign debt pushes EM debt to record USD 72.5 tn in 3Q2019: Total emerging market debt \u2014 including that of EM governments, households, non-financial corporates, and the financial sector \u2014 has hit a new record high of USD 72.5 tn in 3Q2019, according to the Institute of International Finance\u2019s (IIF)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/612.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550583,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/07\/unctad-trims-global-economic-growth-to-2-6-in-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":543023,"position":2},"title":"UNCTAD trims global economic growth to 2.6% in 2022","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"UNCTAD trims global economic growth to 2.6% in 2022: The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has revised downward its global economic growth forecast for 2022 to 2.6%, down from 3.6%, due to the war in Ukraine and the changes countries are making to their macroeconomic policies as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Macro picture"","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/453.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573229,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/26\/mena-gdp-to-crash-5-7-this-year-un\/","url_meta":{"origin":543023,"position":3},"title":"MENA GDP to crash 5.7% this year -UN","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s not looking pretty for MENA economies if this UN report is anything to go by: MENA economies are expected to contract by a collective 5.7% this year because of the covid-19 pandemic, according to a UN report (pdf) released on Thursday. This would represent an overall loss of USD\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/7\/203.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598689,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/02\/finmin-to-set-new-medium-term-economic-targets-as-global-macro-headwinds-build\/","url_meta":{"origin":543023,"position":4},"title":"FinMin to set new medium-term economic targets as global macro headwinds build","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EXCLUSIVE- FinMin to set new medium-term economic targets as global macro headwinds build: The Finance Ministry is on track to specify \u201cmore realistic\u201d medium-term targets for Egypt\u2019s key macro indicators in light of a challenging outlook for global growth and volatility in emerging markets, according to official documents seen by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/773.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567855,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/09\/egypts-macro-picture-in-2021-according-to-beltone\/","url_meta":{"origin":543023,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s macro picture in 2021, according to Beltone","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s macro picture in 2021, according to Beltone: The coming 12 months will be characterized by solid economic growth, low inflation and strong investor appetite for Egyptian debt, Beltone Financial said in its annual Macro and Strategy research note. Stimulus measures pushed out by the central bank and the Finance\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/173.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=543023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543023\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/543014"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/543024"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=543023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=543023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=543023"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=543023"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=543023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}