{"id":542992,"date":"2022-01-30T04:05:19","date_gmt":"2022-01-30T04:05:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/30\/central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-despite-fed-tightening\/"},"modified":"2022-01-30T04:05:19","modified_gmt":"2022-01-30T04:05:19","slug":"central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-despite-fed-tightening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/30\/central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-despite-fed-tightening\/","title":{"rendered":"Central bank to leave rates on hold despite Fed tightening"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> <strong>The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave interest rates on hold when it meets <\/strong><strong>this Thursday<\/strong> despite forecasts for rising inflation at home and higher interest rates abroad. All eight analysts and economists we polled expect the Monetary Policy Committee to maintain the benchmark rate at 8.25%, telling us that the EGP carry trade won\u2019t face immediate pressure from rising US rates \u2014 and that inflation is unlikely to rise above the central bank\u2019s target range.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The central bank has held interest rates steady for over a year<\/strong>, leaving the overnight deposit rate at 8.25% since making a <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/5662d281-1e6f-4604-b559-ae1ac16ce3be\">50 bps cut in November 2020<\/a>. The lending rate has remained at 9.25% while the main operation and discount rates are both at 8.75%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>THE GLOBAL BACKGROUND:<\/strong> The Federal Reserve <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/finance\/inflation-fighting-fed-likely-flag-march-interest-rate-hike-2022-01-26\/\">said<\/a> late last Wednesday that it will likely start raising interest rates in March as policymakers try to get a handle on inflation, which has recently risen to highs not seen since the early 1980s. The market is currently pricing in four rate hikes this year, which would be the most aggressive tightening cycle in the US since the mid-2000s, putting pressure on risk assets across the world.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Egypt won\u2019t come under pressure immediately: <\/strong>Egypt\u2019s inflation-adjusted interest rate is the highest in the world and will attract portfolio inflows even as US interest rates start to climb, several analysts tell us. Egypt currently offers a real return of around 4%, which compares favorably to rates in the US and other high-interest rate emerging markets such as Turkey, according to HC Securities\u2019 Monette Doss, who said, \u201cWe believe that Egypt's carry trade remains attractive at the current levels. \u2026 Even though the US Federal Reserve might start increasing interest rates in March, US two-year notes are expected to offer a negative real return of -2.2% \u2026 Turkey offers a real return of 3.8% on our calculations.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>How markets react to the Fed is the wild card:<\/strong> Some analysts expect the central bank could consider raising rates later this year as global rates tick higher. \u201cWith the Fed set to embark on policy tightening, the chances are growing that the central bank will need to hike interest rates later in the year,\u201d James Swanston, MENA economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note earlier this month.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Inflation could also prompt policymakers to consider a rate hike:<\/strong> \u201cWe see a high probability that the central bank will raise interest rates by 100 bps in 2022. This will depend mostly on the impact of monetary policy in developed countries, and the rise of global commodity prices, especially food, and their ability to influence domestic inflation,\u201d Prime Holding\u2019s Mona Bedeir told us.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Analysts told us that inflation will continue to rise in the coming months<\/strong>, with most forecasting the headline urban rate to average between 7-7.5% during the first six months of 2022 as rising oil and food prices filter through to the local economy. Mohamed Abu Basha, head of macro analysis at EFG Hermes, expects inflation to average 7% through the year. Annual urban inflation rose slightly to <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/e8bb1d8d-f765-4ef6-bccb-73f889b098b1\">5.9% in December<\/a> from <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/ac88f00a-95ea-4278-ae35-7d265fb003a0\">5.6% the month before<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>But it\u2019s unlikely to overshoot the central bank\u2019s target range:<\/strong> None of the analysts polled expected inflation to rise significantly above the central bank\u2019s 7% (+\/- 2%) target range.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave interest rates on hold when it meets this Thursday despite forecasts for rising inflation at home and higher interest rates abroad. All eight analysts and economists we polled expect the Monetary Policy Committee to maintain the benchmark rate at 8.25%, telling us that the EGP carry trade [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":542993,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9591],"tags":[612,271,104,611,72,182,349,125,117],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-542992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyst-poll","tag-analyst-poll","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterprise-poll","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-investment-watch","tag-us","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a4f0876c-b382-42d3-897f-9972a2721bed","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/356.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[542988],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Central bank to leave rates on hold despite Fed tightening - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/30\/central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-despite-fed-tightening\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Central bank to leave rates on hold despite Fed tightening\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave interest rates on hold when it meets this Thursday despite forecasts for rising inflation at home and higher interest rates abroad. All eight analysts and economists we polled expect the Monetary Policy Committee to maintain the benchmark rate at 8.25%, telling us that the EGP carry trade [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/30\/central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-despite-fed-tightening\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-01-30T04:05:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/356.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/30\/central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-despite-fed-tightening\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/30\/central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-despite-fed-tightening\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Central bank to leave rates on hold despite Fed tightening\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-01-30T04:05:19+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/30\/central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-despite-fed-tightening\/\"},\"wordCount\":551,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/30\/central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-despite-fed-tightening\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/356.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"ANALYST POLL\",\"Central Bank of Egypt\",\"economy\",\"Enterprise Poll\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"inflation\",\"interest rates\",\"investment watch\",\"US\"],\"articleSection\":[\"ANALYST POLL\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/30\/central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-despite-fed-tightening\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/30\/central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-despite-fed-tightening\/\",\"name\":\"Central bank to leave rates on hold despite Fed tightening - 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All 11 analysts and economists we surveyed expect the central bank to stick to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;POLL&quot;","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/165.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":560789,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/14\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-on-hold-this-thursday\/","url_meta":{"origin":542992,"position":1},"title":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday: Rising global commodity prices and a pick-up in US treasury yields will likely mean that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates unchanged when its Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;POLL&quot;","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/183.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557226,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/12\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-september-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":542992,"position":2},"title":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to keep rates on hold in September meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting this Thursday as it looks to keep inflation in check, according to a poll conducted by Enterprise. All 10 analysts surveyed said they expected the CBE to maintain its cautious approach for its seventh\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;POLL&quot;","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/137.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":558195,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/08\/01\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":542992,"position":3},"title":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 August 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave interest rates on hold when it meets this Thursday as it looks to keep inflationary pressures in check, according to an Enterprise poll. All 12 analysts and economists we surveyed expect the central bank to err on the side of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/8\/30.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":561862,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/25\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-at-upcoming-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":542992,"position":4},"title":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave rates on hold at upcoming meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- The CBE is expected to leave rates on hold: Rising commodity prices and higher US yields will likely prompt the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to leave interest rates on hold at its next meeting,, according to an Enterprise poll. All 14 analysts and economists we surveyed expect\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;POLL&quot;","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/246.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574709,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/20\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-september-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":542992,"position":5},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to leave rates on hold in September 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 September 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE expected to leave rates on hold when it meets this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely keep interest rates unchanged when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. All 11 economists and analysts surveyed expect the MPC to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/210.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542992","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=542992"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542992\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/542988"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/542993"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=542992"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=542992"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=542992"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=542992"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=542992"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}