{"id":542436,"date":"2025-12-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/11\/inflation-inches-down-in-november-defying-expectations\/"},"modified":"2025-12-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-inches-down-in-november-defying-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/11\/inflation-inches-down-in-november-defying-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation inches down in November, defying expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Annual urban inflation e<\/strong><strong>ased 0.2 percentage points in November<\/strong>, going against what pretty much everyone expected, to end the month at 12.3%, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas seen by EnterpriseAM. A drop in food and beverage prices \u2014 down a whole 2.6% on a monthly basis \u2014 unexpectedly offset a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/41efd8b4-7e39-4ea0-92bf-263bc424889d\/gov%25e2%2580%2599t%253cmark%253e-hikes%253c%2Fmark%253e-fuel-prices-ahead-of-expected-imf-loan-review\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">rise in fuel prices<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">(<strong>Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>There\u2019s a reason why they say predictions are a fool\u2019s game<\/strong>, with almost none of the analysts and economists we trust the most foreseeing the country\u2019s headline figure dipping in November. Headline inflation had been expected to accelerate 0.6 percentage points to 13.1% y-o-y, according to a poll of 14 analysts by <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/ar\/business\/JHLHI5TNCJM6DPPFXGMP4PAKLA-2025-12-08\/#:~:text=%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A9%208%20%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%B1%20%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%88%D9%86%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%88%D9%84,14%20%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%84%D8%A7%20%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%AA%20%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%B2%20%D8%A2%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1%D9%87%D9%85.\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The prices of food and beverages \u2014 the largest component of the basket of goods and <\/strong><strong>services used to calculate headline inflation \u2014 rose at a softer pace last month<\/strong>, rising 0.7% y-o-y, compared to 1.5% in October. This was the result of a 15.5% dip in vegetable prices and a 1.8% reduction in meat prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Transport continued to push the headline figure higher: <\/strong>Transport prices were one of the main drivers of inflation last month, rising 28.9% y-o-y, as the market continued to digest October\u2019s fuel price hike. Other goods and services that contributed to inflation include housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and narcotics, and healthcare services.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>It was the same story on a monthly basis, with prices rising at a slower pace from the <\/strong><strong>previous month. <\/strong>Prices rose 0.3% m-o-m, compared to a 1.8% m-o-m rise in October, which HC Securities attributed \u201cto the decline of food and beverage prices by 2.6% m-o-m, as reported, and the favorable base year effect.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>What about core inflation?<\/strong> Annual core inflation \u2014 which excludes volatile items like food and fuel \u2014 rose to 12.5% y-o-y in November from 12.1% the month before, according to data from the Central Bank of Egypt. On a monthly basis, core inflation came in at 0.8%, compared to 2.0% a month earlier.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The outlook:<\/strong> CI Capital sees inflation ending the year at 12.5%, before cooling to 9% by the end of next year. Similarly, Capital Economics expects inflation to \u201cbump around current rates in December and early 2026,\u201d before easing further in 1Q to then reach CBE\u2019s target range of 7% (\u00b12%). <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The news should bolster expectations of a coming interest rate cut this month<\/strong>, with the central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee set to meet on 25 December. The unexpected fall also bodes well for the combined fifth and sixth reviews of the country\u2019s USD 8 bn extended fund facility program with the IMF, with <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">government sources previously telling EnterpriseAM<\/a> that the visiting Fund delegation would be closely watching the data.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>How big of a cut are we talking? <\/strong>Al Ahly Pharos Head of Research Hany Genena and Thndr's Esraa Ahmed see room for a 100 bps cut during the MPC\u2019s last meeting of the year. Against the grain, Capital Economics expects the CBE to keep interest rates unchanged before \u201cresuming its loosening cycle with a 100 bps cut in 1Q 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Annual headline urban inflation fell to 12.3% in November<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":542437,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,104,72,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-542436","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"8b06dc00-6bef-4bf5-92b3-48d1f91cfbb9","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/945.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation inches down in November, defying expectations","related_issue":[542431],"teaser":"Annual headline urban inflation fell to 12.3% in November","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/12\/.0376973c-aa8f-4544-a3cd-3ac639c92e05.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell for the first time in 11 months, dipping 0.1% due\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/118.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557230,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/12\/inflation-continues-upwards-trend-in-august-hitting-5-7\/","url_meta":{"origin":542436,"position":1},"title":"Inflation continues upwards trend in August, hitting 5.7%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation hit its highest level in nine months in August on the back of rising food, fuel and transportation costs, according to figures released on Thursday. Headline urban inflation rose slightly to 5.7% in August, up from 5.4% in July, according to state statistics agency Capmas. That\u2019s the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/141.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567942,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/13\/food-prices-drive-inflation-rate-to-five-month-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":542436,"position":2},"title":"Food prices drive inflation rate to five-month high","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline urban inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month to 5.7% in November from 4.6% in October, according to Capmas figures (pdf) released on Thursday. The increase was driven by higher food prices, which single-handedly brought annual inflation to its highest since May. Monthly headline figures remained muted at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/220.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":553861,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/12\/urban-inflation-dips-to-lowest-level-since-july\/","url_meta":{"origin":542436,"position":3},"title":"Urban inflation dips to lowest level since July","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation slowed for the second month running in November as pressure on food prices continued to ease, according to official figures released on Thursday. The headline rate fell to 5.6% last month from 6.3% in October, the lowest rate since July and within the lower end of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/291.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565438,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/08\/inflation-uptick-as-ramadan-approaches\/","url_meta":{"origin":542436,"position":4},"title":"Inflation uptick as Ramadan approaches","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation accelerated slightly to 4.8% in March, up from 4.6% in February, state statistics bureau Capmas\u2019 latest reading (pdf) showed. Annual urban inflation stood steady to 4.5% in March. On a monthly basis, headline inflation rose 0.6% m-o-m, compared to a 0.2% monthly rise in February. This is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY&quot;","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592872,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/11\/egypts-annual-headline-inflation-cools-again-in-october\/","url_meta":{"origin":542436,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation cools again in October","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Headline inflation cools again in October, ramping up expectations of a rate cut this week: Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate dropped for the fifth consecutive month to its lowest level in nine years, hitting 2.4% in October from 4.3% in September, according to Capmas data (pdf) released yesterday. Annual urban\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/2438.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542436","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=542436"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542436\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/542431"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/542437"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=542436"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=542436"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=542436"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=542436"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=542436"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}