{"id":571389,"date":"2020-05-11T03:56:06","date_gmt":"2020-05-11T03:56:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?post_type=issue&#038;p=571389"},"modified":"2025-12-16T07:59:05","modified_gmt":"2025-12-16T07:59:05","slug":"el-erian-on-how-to-prepare-for-a-post-covid-world-plus-enterprise-poll-sees-cbe-leaving-rates-on-hold","status":"publish","type":"issue","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/issues\/el-erian-on-how-to-prepare-for-a-post-covid-world-plus-enterprise-poll-sees-cbe-leaving-rates-on-hold\/","title":{"rendered":"El Erian on how to prepare for a post-covid world. \r\n Plus: Enterprise poll sees CBE leaving rates on hold."},"content":{"rendered":"<section id=\"571391\" class=\"issue-section \">\n<div class=\"issue-section__content\">\n<div class=\"stories\">            <!-- Show divider before story section -->\r\n        <div \r\n            class=\"\r\n                story-section            \"\r\n            id=\"571391\">\r\n            \r\n                <div class=\"issue-story-header text-center\">\r\n                    <div class=\"index-number\">1<\/div>\r\n\r\n                    <p class=\"f-graphik\">What We're Tracking Today<\/p>\r\n                    <h3 class=\"story-title\">\r\n                        <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/what-were-tracking-on-11-may-2020\/\">\r\n                            What we\u2019re tracking on 11 May 2020                        <\/a>\r\n                    <\/h3>\r\n\r\n                    \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\n<div class=\"cta\">\n    <div class=\"cta__btn share-dropdown-cta dropdown-toggle-btn\" style=\"position:relative\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/internal\/408834.svg\" alt=\"\">\n        Share Story\n        <!-- Dropdown Menu -->\n        <ul class=\"share-menu\">\n            <li class=\"list-inline-item\">\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/what-were-tracking-on-11-may-2020\/\" target=\"_blank\">\n                    Open in new tab                    <!-- <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"assets\/media\/placeholder\/svg\/new-tab.svg\" alt=\"\"> -->\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <li class=\"list-inline-item\">\n                <a href=\"#\" target=\"_blank\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); 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The story appears immediately after this morning\u2019s Speed Round.<\/p><p><strong>Egypt looks set to get approval on USD 2.7 bn from the IMF <\/strong>when the institution\u2019s executive board meets later today. The Sisi administration has <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/6a6e2b8c-d828-4a7c-b218-b1aeeac53552\">asked<\/a> for a USD 2.7 bn rapid financing instrument and another, unspecified sum in the form of a stand-by arrangement. Only the RFI is on the table at the IMF board\u2019s meeting today.<\/p><p><strong>The administration is sending a clear message that both new austerity measures and a <\/strong><strong>lockdown are on the table <\/strong>as Egypt levels-up in its fight against covid-19.<\/p><p><strong>AUSTERITY: The state is committed to increased spending on health and welfare<\/strong>, but could cut spending in other areas (and, presumably, reconsider taxes?) if the covid-induced revenue shortfall extends into the new fiscal year, Ittihadiya said in a statement after a sit-down between President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly and Finance Minister Mohamed Maait. We have the full rundown in this morning\u2019s Speed Round, below.<\/p><p><strong>LOCKDOWN: <\/strong>The Medical Syndicate is lobbying the government to go into a full lockdown until the end of Ramadan, the syndicate\u2019s Cairo president, Sherine Ghaleb, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shorouknews.com\/news\/view.aspx?cdate=10052020&amp;id=150466e7-7e17-4eb8-a7ed-82b55e17a217&amp;fbclid=IwAR0OVAb_3Y0nd0zBdflutNwwlRXREcIv-05T7umOeceI0ZAwepk0qwvywrs\">tells Al Shorouk<\/a>. The syndicate sees the holy month as Egypt\u2019s \u201clast chance\u201d to use a lockdown to curb the spread of the virus, saying doing it at the tail end of Ramadan would have the least impact on the economy. <strong>All options are on the table, including a 24-hour curfew<\/strong>, presidential health advisor and former health minister Mohamed Awad Tageldin said on television last night (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Sr7xdwqrvk4&amp;t=270s\">watch, runtime: 8:29<\/a>).<\/p><p><strong>The news comes as the Madbouly government is actively taking the pulse this week of top <\/strong><strong>business leaders <\/strong>on how to reopen the economy after Eid while still containing the spread of covid-19. Cabinet is set to make an announcement by the end of next week on what restrictions will remain in place after the holiday. The consultations come as some in the business community are <strong>calling for bailout funding to be made available to companies in the service sector.<\/strong> The government\u2019s stimulus spending has so far prioritized the tourism industry, manufacturers and exporters.<\/p><p><strong>It\u2019s interest rate week, and 10 of the 12 analysts in our regular poll expect the <\/strong><strong>central bank to leave rates on hold <\/strong>when its monetary policy committee meets this coming Thursday. The poll leads this morning\u2019s Speed Round, below.<\/p><hr class=\"grey-line\"><p><strong>You need to put on a face mask if you\u2019re heading to CIB today <\/strong>after the bank took the (eminently sensible) step of making it mandatory for clients visiting its branches to wear masks starting yesterday, CIB said <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cibeg.com\/English\/Pages\/Bank-Safely.aspx\">on its website<\/a>. State-owned Banque Misr said it will <a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/3dED6bT\">follow suit<\/a> starting Sunday, 17 May.<\/p><p><strong>Why are masks so important? <\/strong>They protect the people around you, as the Philadelphia public health office <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/phlpublichealth\/status\/1255941752164401153?lang=en\">put it in terms that should be immediately understandable to anyone who\u2019s ever been peed on by an infant on a changing table<\/a><\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>So, when do we eat? <\/strong>Maghrib prayers are at 6:39pm and you\u2019ll have until 3:25am to finish caffeinating. Fajr is coming one minute earlier every day through the end of the Holy Month.<\/p><hr class=\"grey-line\"><p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-08\"><\/a> <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.surveymonkey.com\/r\/95DC9YG\">TAKE OUR POLL- How is covid-19 impacting your business?<\/a><\/strong> We do an annual reader poll asking what you expect of business conditions and the economy in the year ahead. Covid-19 has us thinking that the results of <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/1428f01f-9682-484b-8152-b9b69ea63b4a\">this year\u2019s survey<\/a> need updating. Take a minute and tell us how covid-19 has impacted your business, whether it\u2019s changed your outlook on the economy, and what you think of WFH. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.surveymonkey.com\/r\/95DC9YG\">You can take the survey here.<\/a><\/strong> <\/p><p><strong>ON THE GLOBAL FRONT-<\/strong><\/p><p>There\u2019s plenty of competition for your attention on the global front this morning:<\/p><p><strong>Policymakers are worried that we\u2019re looking at a second wave of infections. <\/strong>A spike in cases in Germany and new clusters in China and South Korea were reported yesterday in a demonstration of the difficult road ahead for governments trying to loosen lockdown restrictions without fuelling a second wave of infections. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/cf719c42-ff2f-4447-9f1c-346477724433\">The FT<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/may\/10\/global-report-covid-19-cases-rise-in-germany-as-wuhan-reports-first-infection-in-weeks\">the Guardian<\/a> have more.<\/p><p><strong>Across the pond: <\/strong>The US administration is reportedly <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-congress-coronavirus\/white-house-considers-more-coronavirus-aid-as-jobs-picture-worsens-idUSKBN22M0GX\">mulling another round of<\/a><\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-congress-coronavirus\/white-house-considers-more-coronavirus-aid-as-jobs-picture-worsens-idUSKBN22M0GX\">coronavirus aid<\/a><\/strong> amid fears that <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/ceaea02e-ad4e-4574-b150-89191c140c93\">as many as one in five Americans could soon find themselves jobless<\/a><\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/p><p><strong>The coronavirus is working its way through the White House<\/strong>, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/05\/10\/us\/politics\/white-house-coronavirus-trump.html\">New York Times<\/a> reports, but Vice President Mike Pence is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/health-coronavirus-pence\/update-1-mike-pence-self-isolates-after-aide-was-diagnosed-with-coronavirus-bloomberg-reporter-idUSL1N2CS09U\">not going into self-isolation<\/a> despite earlier stories suggesting he would do so.<\/p><p><strong>Closer to home: <\/strong><strong>Saudi Arabia is axing its cost-of-living allowance and will triple its VAT<\/strong> as it scrambles to respond to both covid-19 and the collapse of oil prices in the wake of its price war with Russia. \u201cThe cost of living allowance will be suspended as of June first, and the value added tax will be increased to 15% from 5% as of July first,\u201d Reuters quotes Saudi\u2019s state news agency as saying.<\/p><p><strong>Dubai is looking at a long recovery from covid-19 as the economic fallout hits at the <\/strong><strong>heart of its economy <\/strong>as the sectors that underpinned its growth strengths \u2014 aviation, shipping, real estate \u2014 have been exposed as vulnerable by the pandemic. Officials may have to resort to a program of damage control involving a mass labor exodus, bailouts and a series of restructurings, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/5ff1cc05-64eb-4e1a-bf53-62c7e62d5a2c\">Financial Times argues<\/a>.<\/p><p class=\"web-image\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/Covid-graph-10-May-1600px.jpg?ssl=1\" alt=\"enterprise\"><\/p><p><strong>COVID-19 IN EGYPT-<\/strong><\/p><p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-05\"><\/a> <strong>Egypt has now disclosed a total of 9,400 confirmed cases of covid-19<\/strong> after <a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/3bo36qe\">the Health<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/3bo36qe\">Ministry reported<\/a> 436 new infections yesterday. The ministry also said that another 11 people had died from the virus, taking the death toll to 525. We now have a total of 2,556 confirmed cases that have since tested negative for the virus after being hospitalized or isolated, of whom 2,075 have fully recovered.<\/p><p><strong>Even with the pandemic, Egypt\u2019s total deaths in April are apparently 2.8% lower <\/strong><strong>than they were during the same month last year<\/strong>, dipping to 42.1k from 43.3k in 2019, according to the cabinet\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/3clYgeu\">Information and Decision Support Center<\/a>.<\/p><p><strong>Thirty-eight medical personnel at the Al Azhar-affiliated Al Zahra University <\/strong><strong>Hospital have been infected with<\/strong><strong> covid-19<\/strong>, Al Azhar University Vice President Mahmoud Sedik told Sada El Balad (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=uhIGgZLv4Zo\">watch, runtime 5:29<\/a>).<\/p><p class=\"web-image\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/CIRA-Blackboard-Banner-B.jpg?ssl=1\" alt=\"enterprise\"><\/p><p><strong>*** It\u2019s Blackboard day:<\/strong> We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed. Blackboard appears every Monday in Enterprise in the place of our traditional industry news roundups.<\/p><p><strong>In today\u2019s issue: What shape could back-to-school take in the fall?<\/strong> As the debate on whether we should ease the lockdown on schools next academic year intensifies, Egypt\u2019s private schools explain to us why they prefer a hybrid of online and classroom work.<\/p>\t<\/div><!-- .entry-content -->\n\n\t\n<\/article><!-- #post-${ID} -->\n\n\n    <div class=\"tags-section\">\n        <div class=\"f-graphik\">Tags:<\/div>\n        <div class=\"tags-list\">\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/central-bank-of-egypt\/\">Central Bank of Egypt<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/covid-19\/\">covid-19<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                        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href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/last-nights-talk-shows-for-monday-11-may-2020\/\">\r\n                            Last night\u2019s talk shows for Monday, 11 May 2020                        <\/a>\r\n                    <\/h3>\r\n\r\n                    \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\n<div class=\"cta\">\n    <div class=\"cta__btn share-dropdown-cta dropdown-toggle-btn\" style=\"position:relative\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/internal\/408834.svg\" alt=\"\">\n        Share Story\n        <!-- Dropdown Menu -->\n        <ul class=\"share-menu\">\n            <li class=\"list-inline-item\">\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/last-nights-talk-shows-for-monday-11-may-2020\/\" target=\"_blank\">\n                    Open in new tab                    <!-- <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"assets\/media\/placeholder\/svg\/new-tab.svg\" alt=\"\"> -->\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <li 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hentry category-enterprise-last-nights-talk-shows tag-enterprise-last-nights-talk-shows tag-enterpriseam wpautop entry\">\n\n\t\n\t<div class=\"entry-content\">\n\n\t\t\n\t\t<p><strong>It was another quiet Ramadan night on the airwaves. <\/strong>Check back tomorrow, folks.<\/p>\n\t<\/div><!-- .entry-content -->\n\n\t\n<\/article><!-- #post-${ID} -->\n\n\n    <div class=\"tags-section\">\n        <div class=\"f-graphik\">Tags:<\/div>\n        <div class=\"tags-list\">\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/enterprise-last-nights-talk-shows\/\">Enterprise+: Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n            <\/div>\r\n        <\/div> <!-- \/.story -->\r\n    \n    \n\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"571394\" class=\"issue-section \">\n<div class=\"issue-section__content\">\n<div class=\"stories\">            <!-- Show divider before story section -->\r\n        <div \r\n            class=\"\r\n                story-section            \"\r\n            id=\"571394\">\r\n            \r\n                <div class=\"issue-story-header text-center\">\r\n                    <div class=\"index-number\">3<\/div>\r\n\r\n                    <p class=\"f-graphik\">Speed Round<\/p>\r\n                    <h3 class=\"story-title\">\r\n                        <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged-in-may-2020\/\">\r\n                            Enterprise Poll: CBE to leave interest rates unchanged in May 2020                        <\/a>\r\n                    <\/h3>\r\n\r\n                    \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\n<div class=\"cta\">\n    <div class=\"cta__btn share-dropdown-cta dropdown-toggle-btn\" style=\"position:relative\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/internal\/408834.svg\" alt=\"\">\n        Share Story\n   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<\/div>\r\n                    \r\n                <\/div>\r\n\r\n            \r\n            <div class=\"story__body\">\r\n\r\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged-in-may-2020\/\">\r\n                    <div class=\"photo photo--above\">\r\n                        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/97.jpg?fit=1568%2C9999&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" data-attachment-id=\"571395\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged-in-may-2020\/97-jpg-13\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/97.jpg?fit=%2C&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"[]\" data-image-title=\"97.jpg\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/97.jpg?fit=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/97.jpg?fit=1024%2C1024&amp;ssl=1\" \/>                    <\/div>\r\n                <\/a>\r\n\r\n                \n<article id=\"post-571394\" class=\"content-area-description single-story post-571394 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-speed-round tag-central-bank-of-egypt tag-covid-19 tag-enterpriseam tag-interest-rates tag-speed-round wpautop entry\">\n\n\t\n\t<div class=\"entry-content\">\n\n\t\t\n\t\t<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-02\"><\/a> <strong>ENTERPRISE POLL- <\/strong><strong>CBE to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets this week:<\/strong> The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave rates on hold for the second consecutive month when its monetary policy committee meets later this week, according to a poll of analysts conducted by Enterprise. Ten of 12 analysts surveyed expect the central bank to hold off on making further adjustments to rates after its record <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/f2e78eb3-6978-4eb5-a04f-a3b7247293ed\">300 bps emergency cut<\/a> in March.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Where rates stand now:<\/strong> The CBE\u2019s overnight deposit rate is at 9.25% and the lending rate is at 10.25%. The main operation and discount rates are both at 9.75%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Not enough has changed since March to justify further intervention,<\/strong> Mohamed Abu Basha, head of macroeconomic research at EFG Hermes, told us. \u201cThere have been no significant changes\u201d since March and \u201cthere is no need for any action,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A cut risks putting pressure on the EGP <\/strong>by turning off the carry trade. Renaissance Capital\u2019s Ahmed Hafez believes that the CBE will not risk placing further downward pressure on the EGP as the pandemic has hit tourism revenues where it hurts. Sigma Capital\u2019s head of research, Abou Bakr Imam, echoed Hafez, noting that the bank will prioritize maintaining currency stability, especially after <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/bf372f6c-8044-4c64-9054-8c506d63a4a8\">last month\u2019s sell-off<\/a> of government debt.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Expectations for higher inflation to squeeze real rates: <\/strong>Holding off on a rate cut will keep the real return on government treasury bills just a notch over 1%, HC Securities\u2019 Monette Doss told us. While inflation is still within the central bank\u2019s target of 9% (+\/- 3%), Doss expects it to tick up to average 9.6% over the coming 12 months.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Further monetary stimulus would deliver little benefit due to demand slump: <\/strong>\u201cCurrent monetary policy is already accommodative, and the space to add further stimulus is limited,\u201d said Prime Holding\u2019s Mona Bedeir. \u201cThe effect of a further cut in policy rates to boost demand and support sentiment and market functioning will be limited\u201d amid a demand slump caused by the government\u2019s lockdown measures and an uptick in unemployment, she said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The dissident voice:<\/strong> Ahmed Abdel Naby, head of research at Shuaa Securities, sees the bank making a 50 bps cut to support economic activity through the slowdown. The small cut is unlikely to negatively affect foreign portfolio investments, he said.<\/p>\n\t<\/div><!-- .entry-content -->\n\n\t\n<\/article><!-- #post-${ID} -->\n\n\n    <div class=\"tags-section\">\n        <div class=\"f-graphik\">Tags:<\/div>\n        <div class=\"tags-list\">\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/central-bank-of-egypt\/\">Central Bank of Egypt<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/covid-19\/\">covid-19<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/interest-rates\/\">interest rates<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/speed-round\/\">SPEED ROUND<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n            <\/div>\r\n        <\/div> <!-- \/.story -->\r\n    \n    \n\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"571411\" class=\"issue-section \">\n<div class=\"issue-section__content\">\n<div class=\"stories\">    \n    \n\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"571412\" class=\"issue-section \">\n<div class=\"issue-section__content\">\n<div class=\"stories\">            <!-- Show divider before story section -->\r\n        <div \r\n            class=\"\r\n                story-section            \"\r\n            id=\"571412\">\r\n            \r\n                <div class=\"issue-story-header text-center\">\r\n                    <div class=\"index-number\">4<\/div>\r\n\r\n                    <p class=\"f-graphik\">Spotlight<\/p>\r\n                    <h3 class=\"story-title\">\r\n                        <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/el-erian-on-how-to-set-ourselves-up-for-the-post-covid-world-and-why-that-world-will-be-particularly-challenging-to-navigate\/\">\r\n                            El Erian on how to set ourselves up for the post-covid world \u2014 and why that world will be particularly challenging to navigate                        <\/a>\r\n                    <\/h3>\r\n\r\n                    \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\n<div class=\"cta\">\n    <div class=\"cta__btn share-dropdown-cta dropdown-toggle-btn\" style=\"position:relative\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/internal\/408834.svg\" alt=\"\">\n        Share Story\n        <!-- Dropdown Menu -->\n        <ul class=\"share-menu\">\n            <li class=\"list-inline-item\">\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/el-erian-on-how-to-set-ourselves-up-for-the-post-covid-world-and-why-that-world-will-be-particularly-challenging-to-navigate\/\" target=\"_blank\">\n                    Open in new tab                    <!-- <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"assets\/media\/placeholder\/svg\/new-tab.svg\" alt=\"\"> -->\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <li class=\"list-inline-item\">\n                <a href=\"#\" target=\"_blank\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); 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Among the highlights:<\/p>\n<p><strong>The world entered the current crisis in a \u201cvery weak\u201d position<\/strong> because we never effectively secured sustainable and inclusive growth after the financial crisis, we dismissed the importance of climate action, and we didn\u2019t properly resolve global inequality. Now, major economies are expected to see their GDPs contract by 10%+ and supply chains are breaking down.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Developing countries, including Egypt, can\u2019t decouple themselves from these global realities.<\/strong> With the contractions knocking on developed markets\u2019 doors, Egypt and other developing markets can expect to feel the pinch because of lower export volumes, commodity prices, foreign direct investment (FDI), remittances, and tourism. \u201cThis is not a pleasant neighborhood to be in, but unfortunately it is the neighborhood we have.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>But that\u2019s not to say we\u2019re all in the same boat. Unlike Egypt, some developing countries are already buckling<\/strong> under the pressure from spillover effects from developed markets. And most of these developing countries haven\u2019t even had a significant outbreak of covid-19, El Erian notes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Non-traditional int\u2019l players are taking the lead in an otherwise \u201cdisappointing\u201d global effort:<\/strong> On the policy side, individual governments and policymakers are stepping up to the plate with a \u201cwhatever it takes\u201d attitude, but the international response thus far has been \u201cdisappointing,\u201d particularly when considering that this outbreak is an international problem and responsibility, El Erian says. This vacuum left by traditional players, such as the G7, has pushed African countries (Egypt involved), the United Nations, and the G20, among others, to take the lead in coordinating response measures.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Speaking of which: Why hasn\u2019t the pandemic ravaged Africa the way it has, say, Italy and New York?<\/strong> The \u201cgreat puzzle\u201d of the outbreak is that there hasn\u2019t been a massive outbreak of cases in sub-Saharan Africa, where healthcare systems wouldn\u2019t be up to the challenge, El Erian stressed. However, nobody is really certain of whether the subdued spread of covid-19 in the continent, including Egypt, is because of the \u201cpositive\u201d answers \u2014 young populations that are able to withstand the disease without showing symptoms, and a warm climate \u2014 or if it\u2019s actually the worst case answer \u2014 that it\u2019s just going to take more time.<\/p>\n<p><strong>So what does the road ahead look like?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>#1- Everyone will have more debt<\/strong> \u2014 and debt levels in advanced economies are going to start catching up with their EM counterparts. Policymakers\u2019 short-term priority is to stop short-term problems (a temporary job loss, a business temporarily losing its sales revenues, etc) from becoming long-term impediments (bankruptcy). And the way to go about that is to \u201cborrow, and borrow, and borrow.\u201d While a wall of debt sounds less than appealing to say the least, El Erian stresses that this is a far better outcome than failing to give support where it is needed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>#2- We\u2019re going to enter an era of deglobalization.<\/strong> The geopolitical element of the pandemic-induced shock to the global system suggests that a wave of \u201cpolitical anger\u201d (previous iterations of which yielded \u201cunlikely outcomes\u201d such as Brexit and Donald Trump\u2019s election) will make continued globalization difficult, El Erian says. <strong>Changing company behavior will also be a key driver of deglobalization:<\/strong> Businesses will move away from relying on \u201cjust-in-time\u201d models as resilience and sustainability become watchwords. That means they will begin localizing supply chains, and that also means there will be an increased intertwining of the public and private sectors in developed markets.<\/p>\n<p><strong>#3- The world will likely have to learn to \u201clive with the disease.\u201d<\/strong> Until a vaccine and treatment are available, we need to learn two things: The first is to reduce the damage it creates, including properly equipping countries\u2019 healthcare infrastructure with sufficient hospital beds, ventilators, and other necessary supplies. The second is that the global economy will continue to be a \u201cmassive headwind\u201d but it can be offset by investing in human capital, institutions, and improving business climates that will together form a tailwind for economic growth.<\/p>\n<p><strong>#4- Countries, companies, and households need to adopt a combination of defensive and offensive measures.<\/strong> Defensive policies should be designed with resilience and optionality in mind, while offensive measures should ensure agility, El Erian says. The defense phase is what we\u2019re experiencing now \u2014 it\u2019s how we\u2019re acting as individuals, households, businesses, governments, and the global order. To be best positioned for the next phase, we need to avoid certain traps, such as looking for certainty in an uncertain environment, rather than embracing optionality and scenarios, he says.<\/p>\n<p><strong>You can watch the full lecture here (<\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/2YQ5IdZ\">runtime: 1:30:07<\/a><\/strong><strong>).<\/strong><\/p>\n\t<\/div><!-- .entry-content -->\n\n\t\n<\/article><!-- #post-${ID} -->\n\n\n    <div class=\"tags-section\">\n        <div class=\"f-graphik\">Tags:<\/div>\n        <div class=\"tags-list\">\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/covid-19\/\">covid-19<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/mohamed-el-erian\/\">Mohamed El Erian<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/nile-university\/\">Nile University<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n            <\/div>\r\n        <\/div> <!-- \/.story -->\r\n    \n    \n\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"571414\" class=\"issue-section \">\n<div class=\"issue-section__content\">\n<div class=\"stories\">            <!-- Show divider before story section -->\r\n        <div \r\n            class=\"\r\n                story-section            \"\r\n            id=\"571414\">\r\n            \r\n                <div class=\"issue-story-header text-center\">\r\n                    <div class=\"index-number\">5<\/div>\r\n\r\n                    <p class=\"f-graphik\">EGYPT IN THE NEWS<\/p>\r\n                    <h3 class=\"story-title\">\r\n                        <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/egypt-in-the-news-on-11-may-2020\/\">\r\n                            Egypt in the News on 11 May 2020                        <\/a>\r\n                    <\/h3>\r\n\r\n                    \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\n<div class=\"cta\">\n    <div class=\"cta__btn share-dropdown-cta dropdown-toggle-btn\" style=\"position:relative\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/internal\/408834.svg\" alt=\"\">\n        Share Story\n        <!-- Dropdown Menu -->\n        <ul class=\"share-menu\">\n            <li class=\"list-inline-item\">\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/egypt-in-the-news-on-11-may-2020\/\" target=\"_blank\">\n                    Open in new tab                    <!-- <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"assets\/media\/placeholder\/svg\/new-tab.svg\" alt=\"\"> -->\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <li class=\"list-inline-item\">\n                <a href=\"#\" target=\"_blank\" onclick=\"event.preventDefault(); 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               <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <li class=\"list-inline-item\">\n                <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/egypt-in-the-news-on-11-may-2020\/&title=Egypt in the News on 11 May 2020\">\n                    LinkedIn                    <!-- <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"assets\/media\/placeholder\/svg\/linkedin-icon.svg\" alt=\"\"> -->\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <li class=\"list-inline-item\">\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/api.whatsapp.com\/send?text=Egypt+in+the+News+on+11+May+2020+https%3A%2F%2Fenterpriseam.com%2Fegypt%2F2020%2F05%2F11%2Fegypt-in-the-news-on-11-may-2020%2F\">\n                    WhatsApp                    <!-- <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"assets\/media\/placeholder\/svg\/whatsapp-icon.svg\" alt=\"\"> -->\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n    <\/div>\n        <\/div>\r\n                    \r\n                <\/div>\r\n\r\n            \r\n            <div class=\"story__body\">\r\n\r\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/egypt-in-the-news-on-11-may-2020\/\">\r\n                    <div class=\"photo photo--above\">\r\n                                            <\/div>\r\n                <\/a>\r\n\r\n                \n<article id=\"post-571414\" class=\"content-area-description single-story post-571414 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-egypt-in-the-news tag-egypt-in-the-news tag-enterpriseam tag-gender tag-hisham-selim tag-human-rights wpautop entry\">\n\n\t\n\t<div class=\"entry-content\">\n\n\t\t\n\t\t<p><strong>It\u2019s a pleasantly quiet morning for Egypt<\/strong> in the international press.<\/p>\n\t<\/div><!-- .entry-content -->\n\n\t\n<\/article><!-- #post-${ID} -->\n\n\n    <div class=\"tags-section\">\n        <div class=\"f-graphik\">Tags:<\/div>\n        <div class=\"tags-list\">\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/egypt-in-the-news\/\">Egypt in the News<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/gender\/\">gender<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/hisham-selim\/\">Hisham Selim<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/human-rights\/\">human rights<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n            <\/div>\r\n        <\/div> <!-- \/.story -->\r\n    \n    \n\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"571417\" class=\"issue-section \">\n<div class=\"issue-section__content\">\n<div class=\"stories\">            <!-- Show divider before story section -->\r\n        <div \r\n            class=\"\r\n                story-section            \"\r\n            id=\"571417\">\r\n            \r\n                <div class=\"issue-story-header text-center\">\r\n                    <div class=\"index-number\">6<\/div>\r\n\r\n                    <p class=\"f-graphik\">The Market Yesterday<\/p>\r\n                    <h3 class=\"story-title\">\r\n                        <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/the-market-yesterday-89\/\">\r\n                            The Market Yesterday                        <\/a>\r\n                    <\/h3>\r\n\r\n                    \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\n<div class=\"cta\">\n    <div class=\"cta__btn share-dropdown-cta dropdown-toggle-btn\" style=\"position:relative\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/internal\/408834.svg\" alt=\"\">\n        Share Story\n        <!-- Dropdown Menu -->\n        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class=\"list-inline-item\">\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/api.whatsapp.com\/send?text=The+Market+Yesterday+https%3A%2F%2Fenterpriseam.com%2Fegypt%2F2020%2F05%2F11%2Fthe-market-yesterday-89%2F\">\n                    WhatsApp                    <!-- <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"assets\/media\/placeholder\/svg\/whatsapp-icon.svg\" alt=\"\"> -->\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n    <\/div>\n        <\/div>\r\n                    \r\n                <\/div>\r\n\r\n            \r\n            <div class=\"story__body\">\r\n\r\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/the-market-yesterday-89\/\">\r\n                    <div class=\"photo photo--above\">\r\n                                            <\/div>\r\n                <\/a>\r\n\r\n                \n<article id=\"post-571417\" class=\"content-area-description single-story post-571417 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-the-market-yesterday tag-enterpriseam tag-the-market-yesterday wpautop entry\">\n\n\t\n\t<div class=\"entry-content\">\n\n\t\t\n\t\t<p><p><strong>EGP \/ USD CBE market average: <\/strong>Buy 15.69 | Sell 15.79<\/p>\n<p> <strong>EGP \/ USD at CIB:<\/strong> Buy 15.70 | Sell 15.80<br \/>\n <strong>EGP \/ USD at NBE: <\/strong>Buy 15.68 | Sell 15.78<\/p>\n<p><strong>EGX30<\/strong> (Sunday): 10,258 (+0.8%)<br \/>\n <strong>Turnover:<\/strong> EGP 536 mn (22% below the 90-day average)<br \/>\n <strong>EGX 30 year-to-date<\/strong>: -26.5%<\/p>\n<p><strong>THE MARKET ON SUNDAY:<\/strong> The EGX30 ended Sunday\u2019s session up 0.8%. CIB, the index\u2019s heaviest constituent, ended up 1.6%. EGX30\u2019s top performing constituents were Telecom Egypt up 3%, Ibnsina Pharma up 2.4%, and EFG Hermes up 2.3%. Yesterday\u2019s worst performing stocks were Kima down 4.4%%, GB Auto down 4.3% and Orascom Investment Holding down 3.6%. The market turnover was EGP 536 mn, and local investors were the sole net buyers.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Foreigners<\/strong>: Net Short | EGP -23.4 mn<br \/>\n <strong>Regional<\/strong>: Net Short | EGP -14.8 mn<br \/>\n <strong>Domestic<\/strong>: Net Long | EGP +38.2 mn<\/p>\n<p><strong>Retail<\/strong>: 68.6% of total trades | 72.5% of buyers | 64.7% of sellers<br \/>\n <strong>Institutions<\/strong>: 31.4% of total trades | 27.5% of buyers | 35.3% of sellers<\/p>\n<p><strong>WTI:<\/strong> USD 24.44 (-1.21%)<br \/>\n <strong>Brent:<\/strong> USD 30.67 (-0.97%)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Natural Gas<\/strong> (Nymex, futures prices) USD 1.84 MMBtu, (+0.66%, Jun 2020 contract)<br \/>\n <strong>Gold:<\/strong> USD 1,709.80 \/ troy ounce (-0.24%)<\/p>\n<p><strong>TASI:<\/strong> 6,682.91 (+0.82%) (YTD: -20.34%)<br \/>\n <strong>ADX:<\/strong> 4,118.74 (+1.41%) (YTD: -18.85%)<br \/>\n <strong>DFM:<\/strong> 1,901.58 (-1.09%) (YTD: -31.22%)<br \/>\n <strong>KSE Premier Market:<\/strong> 5,173.05 (-1.09%)<br \/>\n <strong>QE:<\/strong> 8,907.03 (+1.22%) (YTD: -14.57%)<br \/>\n <strong>MSM:<\/strong> 3,469.27 (-0.42%) (YTD: -12.86%)<br \/>\n <strong>BB: <\/strong>1,268.25 (-0.90%) (YTD: -21.24%)<\/p>\n\t<\/div><!-- .entry-content -->\n\n\t\n<\/article><!-- #post-${ID} -->\n\n\n    <div class=\"tags-section\">\n        <div class=\"f-graphik\">Tags:<\/div>\n        <div class=\"tags-list\">\n                            <a rel=\"tag\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/tag\/the-market-yesterday\/\">The Market Yesterday<\/a>\n                <!-- <span class=\"sep\">,&nbsp;<\/span> -->\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n            <\/div>\r\n        <\/div> <!-- \/.story -->\r\n    \n    \n\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"571418\" class=\"issue-section \">\n<div class=\"issue-section__content\">\n<div class=\"stories\">            <!-- Show divider before story section -->\r\n        <div \r\n            class=\"\r\n                story-section            \"\r\n            id=\"calendar\">\r\n            \r\n            <div class=\"story__body\">\r\n\r\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/571418\/\">\r\n                    <div class=\"photo photo--above\">\r\n                                            <\/div>\r\n                <\/a>\r\n\r\n                \n<article id=\"post-571418\" class=\"content-area-description single-story post-571418 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-calendar wpautop entry\">\n\n\t\t\t<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-primary-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-primary-background-color has-background is-style-wide\">\n\n\t\t<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading mt-0 has-primary-color has-text-color has-link-color has-normal-font-size\" style=\"padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px\">\n\t\t\t<strong> CALENDAR<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/h2>\n\t\n\t<div class=\"entry-content\">\n\n\t\t\n\t\t<p>14 May (Thursday): The CBE\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>23 May (Saturday): Earliest date on which suspension of international flights to \/ from Egypt expires.<\/p>\n<p>23 May (Saturday): Earliest date by which restaurants, gyms, nightclubs, museums and archaeological sites will reopen.<\/p>\n<p>23 May (Saturday): An administrative court will look into an appeal by steel rolling mills to overturn a government\u2019s decision to place import tariffs on steel rebar and iron billets. The hearing <a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/32gKHbU\">was postponed<\/a> from 22 February 2020.<\/p>\n<p>23-26 May (Saturday-Tuesday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).<\/p>\n<p>31 May (Sunday): <a href=\"https:\/\/hapijournal.com\/2020\/04\/28\/%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%a8%d9%8a%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%81%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%85%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d8%ad%d8%ac%d8%b2-%d8%af%d8%b9%d9%88%d9%89-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%82%d8%a7%d9%87%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d9%84%d9%84%d8%aa-2\/\">A postponed court session<\/a> for the lawsuit filed by Cairo Development and Auto Industry, a subsidiary of Arabia Investment Holding, against Peugeot Automotive to demand EUR 150 mn compensation.<\/p>\n<p>9-10 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Open Market Committee will hold its two-day policy meeting to review the interest rate.<\/p>\n<p>30 June (Sunday): Anniversary of the June 2013 protests, national holiday.<\/p>\n<p>25 June (Thursday): The CBE\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>28-29 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Open Market Committee will hold its two-day policy meeting to review the interest rate.<\/p>\n<p>30 July-3 August (Thursday-Monday): Eid El Adha (TBC), national holiday.<\/p>\n<p>13 August (Thursday): The CBE\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>20 August (Wednesday-Thursday): Islamic New Year (TBC), national holiday.<\/p>\n<p>15-16 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Open Market Committee will hold its two-day policy meeting to review the interest rate.<\/p>\n<p>24 September (Thursday): The CBE\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>24 September- 2 October (Thursday-Friday): <a href=\"http:\/\/elgounafilmfestival.com\/\">El Gouna Film Festival<\/a>, El Gouna, Egypt.<\/p>\n<p>6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day, national holiday.<\/p>\n<p>29 October (Thursday): Prophet Mohamed\u2019s birthday (TBC), national holiday.<\/p>\n<p>November: Egypt <a href=\"http:\/\/gate.ahram.org.eg\/News\/2284801.aspx\">will host simultaneously<\/a> the International Capital Market Association\u2019s emerging market, and Africa and Middle East meetings.<\/p>\n<p>4-5 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Open Market Committee will hold its two-day policy meeting to review the interest rate.<\/p>\n<p>12 November (Thursday): The CBE\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>15-16 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Open Market Committee will hold its two-day policy meeting to review the interest rate.<\/p>\n<p>24 December (Thursday): The CBE\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>25 December (Friday): Western Christmas.<\/p>\n<p>1 January 2021 (Friday): New Year\u2019s Day, national holiday.<\/p>\n<p>7 January 2021 (Thursday): Coptic Christmas, national holiday.<\/p>\n\t<\/div><!-- .entry-content -->\n\n\t\n<\/article><!-- #post-${ID} -->\n\n\n            <\/div>\r\n        <\/div> <!-- \/.story -->\r\n    \n    \n\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":571390,"menu_order":0,"template":"","categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-571389","issue","type-issue","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"6617abaa-0d5a-4554-b485-5dcb413b8c5b","teaser":"","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/95.jpg"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>El Erian on how to prepare for a post-covid world.  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