{"id":606184,"date":"2023-09-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-12T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/goinggreens\/climate-change-threatens-our-energy-infrastructure-how-can-the-sector-build-resilience\/"},"modified":"2023-09-12T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-09-12T00:00:00","slug":"climate-change-threatens-our-energy-infrastructure-how-can-the-sector-build-resilience","status":"publish","type":"goinggreen","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/goinggreens\/climate-change-threatens-our-energy-infrastructure-how-can-the-sector-build-resilience\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate change threatens our energy infrastructure. How can the sector build resilience?"},"content":{"rendered":"

How will climate change impact Egypt\u2019s energy infrastructure? <\/strong> The government wants renewable energy to contribute 42% of total power generation by 2030<\/a> and 60% by 2040<\/a> \u2014 and it\u2019s building huge amounts of renewable infrastructure to get there. But as the effects of climate change begin to make themselves felt \u2014 including rising temperatures, more rainfall, and a decline in freshwater resources \u2014 the efficiency of both traditional fossil-fuel and renewable power plants is set to take a hit, writes the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its 2023 Climate Resilience for Energy Transition in Egypt<\/a> report. So what does a changing climate mean for our energy sector and how can we mitigate the risk?<\/p>\n

Rising sea levels threaten coastal plants in the long term: <\/strong> Much of Egypt\u2019s energy infrastructure is located in coastal areas exposed to coastal erosion, storm surges, and flooding thanks to sea level rises, says the IEA. Many plants are located along the north coast, the Nile Delta, and in Sinai, all places that could be partially submerged by 2100. <\/p>\n

The scale of the problem: <\/strong>Half of the country\u2019s oil refineries, some 39% of our gas plants, and 7% of oil power plants are located in low-elevation areas (less than 10 meters above sea level). Most of those facilities are projected to be exposed to some 0.4-0.6 meters of sea level rise in the time from 2081-2100, putting them at risk of physical damage. <\/p>\n

Higher temps = lower generation for wind, solar power: <\/strong>\u201cThe generation efficiency of solar PV and wind power plants, which are expected to grow rapidly in Egypt\u2019s power mix, could degrade in a warmer climate, particularly during heatwaves,\u201d reports the IAE. Solar and wind infrastructure \u2014 which the IEA says is \u201cgenerally designed for conditions of around 25 degrees celsius\u201d \u2014 is set to endure more extremely hot days (above temperatures of 35 degrees) as the century nears an end. <\/p>\n

Egyptian renewables plants are especially vulnerable: <\/strong>More than 80% of our solar plants will see at least 20 and potentially over 60 additional extremely hot days annually in 2080-2100. For wind, the outlook is even worse \u2014 with all of our wind plants forecast to see at least 20 and potentially more than 80 extremely hot days annually. This level of heat stress is higher than the global average \u2014 less than 40% of solar plants globally and only 7% of wind plants are expected to be exposed to this level of heat stress. <\/p>\n

That could be a concern for our whopping pipeline of large-scale wind farms: <\/strong>The government has signed agreements worth bns of USD with a number of companies to build a total of 28 GW of mega wind farms<\/a> in Sohag governorate. Average temperatures in Sohag now exceed the 35-degree threshold for a full seven months of the year and are already roughly 2 degrees higher than they were in 1979, according to publicly available meteorological data. <\/p>\n

Our natgas plants need water and heat: <\/strong>Varying climates across the country mean that while parts of Egypt will be wetter in future, other areas will become drier, according to the IEA. A third of our natgas plants are expected to see a significant increase in consecutive dry days, compared with some 5-8% of natgas plants globally. Natgas plants rely on freshwater as their main cooling source \u2014 which the report says could pose problems in a drier climate, where competition for freshwater resources is fiercer due to population growth and economic development. Hotter temperatures also lower natgas plant performance by reducing the air mass flow that enters gas turbine compressors, the IEA says. <\/p>\n

More rainfall could bring more hydropower generation \u2014 but comes with flooding risks: <\/strong>While some natgas plants will see drier weather, most of our hydropower plants are forecast to experience a wetter climate as precipitation and water flow where they are located increases, says the IAE. Hydropower generation capacity is expected to increase by between 2.4-7.5% depending on the emissions scenario by 2060-2099. That said, heavy rainfall and flooding resulting from increased precipitation could physically damage hydropower plants thanks to sediment and floating debris. The IEA predicts that Egyptian hydropower plants could see maximum one-day rainfall increase by as much as 40% in 2080-2100 \u2014 a level of risk only faced by 10% of hydropower plants globally.<\/p>\n

Hotter temps also mean higher energy demand: <\/strong>Cooling systems already cause a huge seasonal strain on our energy grid \u2014 high demand for ACs was partly to blame<\/a> for the rolling blackouts the country is witnessing this summer.\u201cDuring the peak summer months, 50% of the electric power goes to air conditioning,\u201d says<\/a> UNEP consultant and head of the Egyptian District Cooling Code, Alaa Olama. <\/p>\n

Demand for cooling systems is set to surge in the coming decades <\/strong>as temperatures increase in Egypt by a higher factor than the global average by 2100, writes the IAE. By 2081-2100, Egypt could see its temperatures rise by between 2.5-6 degrees depending on the emissions scenario. Hotter weather will combine with increased urbanization and a higher population to boost demand for cooling \u2014 making it crucial we find ways to reduce the energy spend of cooling systems as well as switch to powering them with renewables. <\/p>\n

SO, WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT? <\/strong><\/p>\n

The IEA wants the energy sector to take heed: <\/strong>\u201cGiven that Egypt is projected to face a notable increase in multiple climate hazards by the end of this century, decisions on future energy systems need to be informed by accurate information on climate risks and impacts,\u201d the IEA says. \u201cDecision makers in the energy sector need to consider climate risks when they determine the energy mix, locations, generation and cooling technologies, and strategies for operation and maintenance\u201d of their plants. <\/p>\n

Some coastal areas are more vulnerable than others: <\/strong> Measures against sea level rises in the form of maritime walls, submersible barriers, soil fixation, anti-flood structures, and nature-based solutions are the focus of the Integrated Coastal Zone Management in the Northern Coast of Egypt<\/a> initiative. The study identified areas exposed to the physical impacts of coastal erosion, coastal flooding, and other hazards under a worst-case scenario for global warming, which energy companies could utilize when planning future power plants and refineries.<\/p>\n

Newer power plants are already using more water-efficient options: <\/strong>Egypt\u2019s three Siemens-built power plants have all introduced measures to reduce the use of fresh water for cooling, reports the IEA. The 4.8-GW Beni Suef power plant \u2014 which is up for a sale<\/a> under the government\u2019s privatization program \u2014 has a closed-loop cooling tower system that reuses cooling water. The New Administrative Capital plant adopted an air-cooling system with 12 giant fans, the first of its kind in the country. The Burullus plant\u2019s wet cooling towers are dependent on Mediterranean Sea water instead of freshwater.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re on the right track: <\/strong> The IEA praises government plans to reduce emissions and boost renewables, saying our sustainable development strategy, national climate strategy, and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) goals Egypt has submitted to the UN all identify \u201ceffective measures for climate resilience.\u201d <\/p>\n

But we need more data: <\/strong>More could be done to monitor progress on the ground as well as changing climate risks, the IEA adds. The sector should track achievements on \u201cclimate change impact assessments, diversification of energy technologies, financing and investment in climate resilience, and institutional and technical capacity building,\u201d the IEA suggests.<\/p>\n

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