{"id":585135,"date":"2023-04-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/goinggreens\/global-temperatures-to-breach-key-1-5c-threshold-in-2030s-un-climate-scientists-warn\/"},"modified":"2023-04-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-04-11T00:00:00","slug":"global-temperatures-to-breach-key-1-5c-threshold-in-2030s-un-climate-scientists-warn","status":"publish","type":"goinggreen","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/goinggreens\/global-temperatures-to-breach-key-1-5c-threshold-in-2030s-un-climate-scientists-warn\/","title":{"rendered":"Global temperatures to breach key 1.5\u00b0C threshold in 2030s, UN climate scientists warn"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span>Governments around the world are unlikely to keep the globe from warming past <\/span>1.5\u00b0C<\/span>, according to UN climate experts, who now expect the key threshold to be breached in the coming decade. In its latest downbe<\/span>at <\/span>assessment<\/a><\/span>, t<\/span>he UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that average global temperatures will rise 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels by the first half of the 2030s as governments fail to bring down emissions quickly enough.<\/span><\/p>\n

1.5\u00b0C is key:<\/span> Countries agreed in Paris in 2015 to reduce emissions to limit global warming to <\/span>1.5\u00b0C, a limit which the IPCC has warned is necessary to prevent increasingly severe weather events and irreversible climate change.<\/span><\/p>\n

The planet has already warmed to more than 1.1\u00b0C:<\/span> Average global temperatures <\/span>reached<\/a><\/span>1.15\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels last year<\/a><\/span>, making 2022 the fifth or sixth warmest year on record, according to the World Meteorological Authority.<\/span><\/p>\n

The IPCC\u2019s assessment is conservative compared to other forecasts:<\/span> The UK\u2019s weather <\/span>service <\/span>said earlier this year<\/a><\/span> that global temperatures could rise beyond 1.5\u00b0C as soon as next year should the El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern replace La Ni\u00f1a this year as some experts expect. <\/span><\/p>\n

The IPCC points the finger squarely on weak commitments and unfulfilled promises: <\/span>\u201cThere are gaps between projected emissions from implemented policies and those from NDCs and finance flows fall short of the levels needed to meet climate goals across all sectors and regions,\u201d according to the report. Under nationally determined contributions (NDCs) announced in the lead up to COP26 in 2021 the world is on track to hit 2.8\u00b0C of warming, the report says.<\/span><\/p>\n

The damage will be worse than previously thought: <\/span>\u201cFor any given future warming level, <\/span>many climate-related risks are higher than assessed in <\/span>[the 2014 assessment report]<\/span>, and projected long-term impacts are up to multiple times higher than currently observed,\u201d the IPCC says. Hazards like heat-related human mortality, food and water-borne illness and flooding near coastal regions are expected to be globally felt in the short term. <\/span><\/p>\n

Dramatic change is needed to avoid surpassing 1.5\u00b0C:<\/span> The world needs to slash <\/span>greenhouse gas emissions <\/span>almost in half by the end of the decade and almost all CO2 emissions by 2050 if we\u2019re to avoid breaching the 1.5\u00b0C threshold, according to the report. Even in this scenario of dramatic emission cuts, the world would have a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5\u00b0C.<\/span><\/p>\n

We have the money to do it:<\/span> \u201cThere is sufficient global capital to close the global investment <\/span>gaps but there are barriers to redirect capital to climate action,\u201d especially given current economic conditions and the high indebtedness of developing countries, the IPCC says. <\/span><\/p>\n

Climate flows are rising:<\/span> Preliminary estimates from the <\/span>Climate Policy Initiative<\/a><\/span> suggest that <\/span>climate flows rose to USD 850-940 bn in 2021, up as much as 42% from 2019-2020 and <\/span>more than double w<\/span>hat they were <\/span>in 2016-2017<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

But we\u2019re still way off:<\/span> The Climate Policy Initiative says that climate flows need to <\/span>hit USD<\/a><\/span>4.35 tn every year<\/a><\/span> by 2030 to meet climate objectives \u2014 almost 5x the estimated figure for 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

Government funding will be key:<\/span> Reducing the barriers to climate finance will require <\/span>governments to take on a more active role in leading public funding for climate investments, according to the IPCC. Public finances will need to be deployed to reduce the regulatory, cost and market barriers for private capital and improve the risk-return profile for investors, it says.<\/span><\/p>\n

Adaptation measures may have only limited efficacy as temperatures rise:<\/span> Adaptation strategies that are feasible <\/span>today \u2014 like building more resilient infrastructure, improving water management practices and developing more efficient agricultural practices \u2014 \u201cwill become constrained and less effective with increasing global warming,\u201d the report says<\/span><\/p>\n

Mitigation remains our best bet:<\/span> A number of mitigation options such as expanding wind and <\/span>solar energy, accelerating the adoption of green infrastructure, demand-side management and reducing food waste are all increasingly cost-effective and have broad public backing, the IPCC says. In the decade to 2019 unit costs of wind and solar energy decreased by some 55% and 85% respectively, while the lithium ion batteries fell 85%. <\/span><\/p>\n

And there's still good reason for countries to focus on mitigation even if we fail to stay <\/span>within 1.5\u00b0C target: <\/span>While the risks of breaching 1.5\u00b0C of warming are serious and difficult to reverse, they are projected to \u201cescalate with every increment of global warming,\u201d the IPCC warns.<\/span><\/p>\n

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