Looking back on the year that has passed

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What We're Tracking Today

Regional escalations has cost Egypt some USD 7 bn in Suez Canal revenues

Good morning, all, and welcome to the very last Sunday of the year. We are taking these last few days of the year to reflect back on the year that has passed — and what a year it has been. We have recaps of what went down on the macro level, on the expansions front, and in the tourism sector this past year.

^^ All of that and more in the news well, below.

DATA POINT-

Ongoing regional escalations have cost us some USD 7 bn in Suez Canal revenues this year alone, according to an Ittihadiya statement. While the statement doesn’t mention how much the canal made in revenues this year, it says that the figure is 60% lower than 2023’s figure.

SPEAKING OF THE SUEZ CANAL- The canal has successfully tested a new 10km lane in the southern section of the waterway, according to a statement. The trial saw the passage of two ships through the new stretch. Four other ships meanwhile navigated the original eastern canal.

Details of the upgrade: The extension increases the length of the canal’s two-way section to 82 km — up from 72 km. “The extension is set to enhance navigational safety, reduce the impact of winds and currents, and raise the canal’s capacity by an additional 6-8 vessels daily,” Suez Canal Authority head Osama Rabie said.

IN THE HOUSE-

The House is reconvening today and tomorrow to discuss and vote on the draft Criminal Procedures Law’s articles. MPs preliminary approved the draft Criminal Procedures Law earlier this month after weeks of discussions.

Also on the agenda: MPs will also discuss and vote on four agreements with Italy, Canada, and the African Development Bank.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

The Mostakbal Misr Agency for Sustainable Development has secured 1.3 mn tons of wheat, securing Egypt’s supply through June 2025, Reuters reports citing two sources it says have knowledge of the matter. The majority of the contracts were sourced from Russia, with shipments already arriving at Egyptian ports and more scheduled for the coming months.

PSA-

WEATHER- Brace for another cold week in Cairo. Today the capital is in for a high of 18°C and a low of 10°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s as cold in Alexandria, with a high of 17°C and a low of 10°C.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Egypt’s first joint-stock ship waste management company will launch mid-January, a little later than originally expected as it works to complete establishment procedures, Al Borsa reports. The EGP 100 mn company — which has received around 60 participation requests thus far — aims to manage ship waste in Port Said and the Suez Canal.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a pretty quiet morning in the western press as the news slowdown drags on.

Trump asks Supreme Court to delay TikTok ban: US president-elect Donald Trump is pushing for the Supreme Court to pause a law requiring TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, to sell the platform to a US company or face a nationwide ban by 19 January. Trump argued his incoming administration needs time to find a reasonable political resolution. (Reuters | BBC | CNN | Bloomberg | The Guardian)

A look back at the Egyptian economy over this past year

The defining story of 2024 in Egypt was the USD flows, both into and out of the country. The year began with a grim outlook for the balance of payments, marked by rising external debt, a trade deficit skewed in favor of imports, dwindling remittances due to a huge gap between the official and unofficial exchange rates, and declining revenues from the Suez Canal due to the disruptions in Red Sea navigation.

We rang 2024 in with a parallel market spiraling out of control, with the EGP changing hands at a record low 70 and beyond to the USD, while the official rate sat at 30.95. This came amid an FX shortage that saw goods stuck in ports and investors wary of the Egyptian market. January and February also saw murmurs of an expanded IMF package.

It wasn’t just the parallel market that reflected how dire Egypt’s FX crunch has gotten: The FX shortage was also felt in the power outages that hit the entire country from July 2023 to mid-July 2024, as the government struggled to secure the FX resources needed to import the needed gas supplies to compensate for the decline of domestic production.

Getting the ball rolling: In late February, the Madbouly government announced that it inked a USD 35 bn agreement with ADQ, giving the Abu Dhabi wealth fund and longtime investor in Egypt the development rights to Ras El Hekma on the North Coast. The transaction provided Egypt with much-needed foreign currency reserves and set the stage for what’s to come.

Then came D-Day: On Wednesday, 6 March the central bank announced that it would “allow the exchange rate to be determined by market forces.” The announcement came after a surprise monetary policy meeting that saw it hike interest rates by 600 bps. The EGP briefly slipped past the 51 mark against the USD last week for the first time, before stabilizing at an average of EGP 50.92 to the greenback.

And an expanded IMF package: That Wednesday also saw the Madbouly government unveil a super-sized USD 8 bn IMF package. Since then Egypt received three of its USD 820 mn tranches from the Fund and we’re currently awaiting another USD 1.2 bn — the biggest tranche of the program so far — after the Fund and Egyptian authorities reached a staff-level agreement on the fourth review of the program.

The expanded IMF package helped the government set its priorities straight, with the latest statement from the Fund placing an emphasis on boosting tax revenues, accelerating the privatization program, improving the business environment, and reducing the state’s footprint in the economy — the Finance Ministry introduced an EGP 1 tn public investment cap for all state entities to help create space for private players.

It wasn’t just the IMF that lent us a helping hand: Shortly after we secured the expanded IMF package, the EU pledged a EUR 7.4 bn package of loans, grants, and investments through to 2027. The EU approved the disbursement of an EUR 1 bn macro-financial assistance package earlier this month to “accompany (Egypt’s) reform agenda.” The World Bank also said it will provide Egypt with a USD 6 bn financing package over the next three years — USD 3 bn will go to the government to support its economic and structural reforms, social protection programs, and its green economy transition and the other half will be distributed through the group’s private sector arm, the International Finance Corporation IFC, and will go to the private sector. The World Bank greenlit USD 700 mn of the funds in June.

The float allowed Egypt to regain significant foreign currency inflows, with a substantial portion of remittances from Egyptians abroad returning to the formal banking system. For the first time since 2022, the CBE and the banking sector achieved a surplus in net foreign assets, driven by rising remittances and the return of foreign investments in government debt instruments. Egypt’s net foreign reserves have increased by around USD 11.6 bn in the months since the government announced the Ras El Hekma agreement and the float of the EGP and FX liquidity returning to the official banking system, paving the way for more international funds. In February — the month immediately before the float — foreign reserves stood at USD 35.3 bn. Net foreign reserves sat at USD 47.0 bn at the end of November 2024.

Remittances also saw a big jump after Egyptians abroad resumed sending money through official channels after the float of the EGP. Remittances from Egyptians abroad hit USD 23.7 bn in the first ten months of 2024, up 45.3% y-o-y.

A return to normalcy: Following the float the government started paying back overdue arrears and banks increased their foreign currency credit card limits.

Localization was also a big theme: The government has taken several measures to localize the production of key sectors throughout 2024, targeting 23 priority industries and aiming to trim reliance on imports for industrial inputs, while some Egyptian companies expanded production and increased market shares in response to calls to boycott foreign brands. However, manufacturers are still heavily dependent on costly imports for raw materials, putting a huge strain on the state’s FX coffers. Nevertheless, manufacturers still bear the expensive transport fees and depend on imports to source the required production imports.

** We take a look back at the localization push throughout 2024 in this week’s Inside Industry to be published in today’s EnterprisePM.

WHAT’S ON THE HORIZON FOR 2025-

Geopolitics and protectionism cloud the outlook for the year to come: Geopolitical risks and the return of Donald Trump to the White House, with his promised protectionist policies, are two key factors framing the outlook for next year, according to a note from Al Ahly Pharos. Ongoing regional tension is projected to continue weighing on Suez Canal revenues and gas supplies from Israel, while a potential escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war could complicate current account balances for commodity-importing nations.

What does Trump’s return to the White House mean for us? Trump’s anticipated fiscal expansion — via tax cuts and trade protectionism — could strengthen the USD, sparking inflationary pressures and forcing the US Federal Reserve to reconsider the pace of rate cuts.

Analysts split on rate forecast: Interest rates are expected to drop to 12-13% by the end of 2025, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly told investors in a meeting on Thursday. Some analysts expect a modest 300-400 bps cut over 2025, while others see the CBE slashing rates by 800-1k bps.

Inflation to trend downward: Analysts see inflation easing to 16-24% in 2025, supported by a favorable base effect. Annual headline urban inflation dropped a full percentage point to 25.5% in November.

The EGP’s exchange rate against the USD remains a wildcard. Most analysts expect the EGP to settle at EGP 53-58 against USD by the end of 2025. However, economist Hany Tawfik sees the EGP potentially weakening further to 60-70 per USD, fueling inflationary pressures.

Meeting debt obligations with FDI and asset sales: Egypt’s external obligations are estimated to sit at USD 33.2 bn in 2025 and USD 55 bn in total until the end of 2026, according to Al Ahly Pharos. Meeting these liabilities will require substantial FDI inflows or additional borrowing, making large FDI transactions and asset sales critical for short-term economic stability.

Structural reforms hold the key: Al Ahly Pharos’ note emphasized the need for structural reforms to address Egypt’s current account and budget deficits. Priorities include a “more level ground for both public entities and the private sector, setting a stable tax policy, revising energy pricing for the industrial sector especially exporters, and enhancing governance and predictability of economic policies,” the note reads.

Editor's note: The story was edited on 30 December 2024 to note that Egypt's total external obligations are estimated to sit at USD 55 bn in total until the end of 2026, according to a research note by Al Ahly Pharos seen by EnterpriseAM.

Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates unchanged for sixth time in a row

CBE keeps interest rates unchanged during final meeting of the year: The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep interest rates unchanged when it held its last meeting of the year on Thursday. The move came in line with analysts’ expectations and marked the sixth consecutive meeting where the MPC decided to keep rates as they are.

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The rationale: The decision “remains appropriate to maintain a tight monetary stance until a significant and sustained decline in inflation is achieved,” the committee said in a statement following its meeting.

The MPC also decided to extend its inflation targets to an average 7% ±2 percentage points by 4Q 2026 and 5% ±2 percentage points by 4Q 2028. The move will “allow for more room to weather price shocks without requiring further stringent monetary tightening, thereby avoiding substantial slowdown in economic activity. “

Remember: The CBE was previously targeting inflation to average 7% ±2 percentage points by 4Q 2024 and 5% ±2 percentage points by 4Q 2026.

Latest inflation data: Annual headline urban inflation dropped a full percentage point to 25.5% in November, marking the first fall in inflation in three months and Egypt’s lowest inflation reading since December 2022.

Where interest rates currently stand: The overnight deposit rate stands at 27.25%, the overnight lending rate at 28.25%, and the main operation and disc. rates at 27.75%. Rates have remained unchanged since the committee delivered a 600 bps rate hike following a surprise monetary policy meeting in March, which was soon followed by the float of the EGP and the approval of a larger loan package from the IMF.

How Egypt’s tourism sector fared in 2024?

A look back at 2024 through the lens of tourism: The year that passed has been a challenging one, with regional conflict raising the questions about one of Egypt’s main sources of FX — tourism.

All these challenges led the government to revise downwards its tourism target — the government now aims to welcome 25 mn tourists annually by 2030, down from a previously-set goal of 30 mn tourists by 2028. Also, the government had expected to welcome 15.7 mn tourists during the current fiscal year, but most recent data see Egypt welcoming 15.3 mn tourists by the end of FY 2024-25, not too far off the initially set goal for the year, and still 5% above last year’s record.

Speaking of targets: To realize its ambitious tourism targets, the government plans to add some 240-250k rooms to existing hotel room capacity. That’s at least 20% more than the 200k hotel rooms that were initially planned.

A helping hand: To encourage investors to build more hotels and reach the targets set, the finance and tourism ministries last month launched a new EGP 50 bn subsidized loan program for the tourism sector. The program offers financing at 12% interest, providing tourism operators with extended support to expand facilities and accommodate an anticipated growth in visitor numbers — with a focus on key tourist destinations in Luxor, Aswan, Greater Cairo, the Red Sea, and South Sinai governorates. Eligible companies can access up to EGP 1 bn in financing —- rising to EGP 2 bn for related entities, over the course of one year.

More gov’t support in the works: The Madbouly government is looking into launching a new initiative to support investors looking to set up new hotels in the local market, Tourism Minister Sherif Fathy said during a presser earlier this month. The initiative is pending discussions with the Finance Ministry and the central bank, seeing as they will be providing the funds needed, he explained.

There are lots of strategic locations the government is prepping for tourism projects: The government is looking into launching four-to-five new investment zones along the Red Sea coast, hoping to create similar projects to the multi USD bn Ras El Hekma project that is expected to attract an additional 8 mn tourists every year once it is up and running. There are already plans to offer the Red Sea’s Ras Banas area to private sector players in a transaction similar to ADQ’s Ras El Hekma USD 35 bn agreement.

What about non-costal tourism? The Madbouly government is also working to overhaul other in-city locations to attract more tourism investments, such as the Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) — which opened its doors for trial operations of its main galleries in October, and is expected to be officially open for visitors sometime in 2025. The museum is the centerpiece of the EGP 30 bn development of the Giza Plateau area — a project that has been long in development. Moreover, the Transport Ministry is working on a corridor that will link GEM to the Giza Plateau, creating a seamless connection between two of Egypt’s most iconic sites. Orascom Investment Holding said in early December it will bring its total investments in the plateau through subsidiary Orascom Pyramids Entertainment to EGP 1.5 bn by February 2025.

The hoteliers business fared well in 2024: The hospitality industry kicked off 2024 with an an agreement that saw ADQ snapping 40.5% of Icon — the hospitality arm of Talaat Moustafa Group (TMG), and the company that acquired a 39% stake in seven historical hotels under the state privatization program. We also saw a slew of transactions by regional and international companies to set up new hotels across Egypt.

A snapshot of what’s in the works: Egyptian hotelier Baron Hotels and Resorts pledged more than EGP 3 bn worth of investments in self-financed projects to add 2k rooms in Hurghada and Sharm El Sheikh over the next two years. Travco subsidiary Jaz Hotel Group plans to set up six new hotels next year, under a USD 215 mn investment plan. Egyptian b’naire Naguib Sawiris also plans to invest at least USD 150 mn to establish one or two hotels near the Pyramids and Sphinx International Airport. Meanwhile, hospitality giant Hilton is working on tripling its presence in the local market by opening 25 new hotels across the country — part of a larger goal for Hilton to have 40 hotels operating in Egypt over the coming years.

Airports up for grabs: The Madbouly government concluded that in order to realize its ambitious tourism targets, it had to upgrade its airports, prompting it to invite private sector players — including foreign companies — to take over the management of airports to improve services and increase revenues. The list of airports earmarked for the private management plan initially started with only five, but now includes all of Egypt’s airports after the government agreed last week with the International Finance Corporation to spearhead the airports privatization plan.

Domestic flights by foreign airlines? The ministries of tourism and aviation are in discussions over potentially allowing foreign airlines to operate domestic flights in Egypt, aiming to boost the number of domestic flights operated.

Yacht tourism also got some love: The government has been working to boost Egypt’s yacht tourism for years now. And over the past year, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) rolled out fresh incentives and facilities for yachts passing through the waterway. The Madbouly government is also working to finalize a contract to develop Galala Marina — expected to become Egypt’s premier yacht destination in the years to come.

2024: A year for expansions abroad among Egyptian businesses

This past year saw many Egyptian companies step foot — or express interest in stepping foot — in markets abroad. Between the FX crunch that saw many companies struggle to secure their imported materials, the float that ate away at companies’ bottomline, the high interest rate environment, and the increasing opportunities to transfer Egyptian expertise abroad, local players had more than one reason to look into expanding abroad.

Below we recap some of the expansions and expansion plans announced in 2024 across various sectors.

REAL ESTATE-

#1- TMG, Ora Developers are heading to Iraq: Local real estate giant Talaat Moustafa Group (TMG) began carrying out legal and technical procedures prior to an investment in Iraq. Meanwhile, Ora Developers inked an agreement with Iraqi authorities to set up — what is set to be the biggest residential complex in Iraq — Ali Al Wardi New City in Baghdad, where 120k residential units will be built.

#2- TMG also stepped foot into the Saudi market this year with its Benan City project that raked in over EGP 64 bn in sales.

#3- Mountain View announced it will step into the Saudi market by launching a project in partnership with Saudi developers Maya Real Estate Development and Investment and Al Saedan Real Estate. The local real estate player set its eyes on bringing in some SAR 2 bn with this project, which will include residential, commercial, and administrative projects.

#4- Tatweer Misr is also heading to Saudi Arabia through a JV with Naif Alrajhi Investmen t. The company is also studying 3-4 potential investments in Riyadh. Its ambitions also extend to Libya and Iraq, and will announce concrete plans early next year for expanding into Oman.

#5- Wadi Degla Developments will be joining them, too, as the local real estate developer signed an MoU with Saudi developer Miskan to collaborate on the Kingdom’s first Wadi Degla Club Town project.

#6- Tabarak Holding is another developer en route to the Kingdom, by acquiring new land in Saudi. The company is looking to respond to the growing demand for real estate. Tabarak also announced plans to enter new European markets in the future.

#7- Palm Hills step foot in the Saudi market this year: Real estate developer Palm Hills Developments (PHD) set up a Saudi branch in August and tapped SODIC’s former managing director Magued Sherif as its CEO.

#8- Lasirena to expand in UAE: Local real estate and tourism company Lasirena Group is heading to Abu Dhabi through a strategic alliance with Emirati conglomerate HE Holding. Lasierna also has plans to expand into several other countries.

CONSTRUCTION-

Hassan Allam inaugurated regional HQ in Riyadh in March after securing its investment license from the Saudi Investment Ministry. The new headquarters is part of the group’s plan to expand across the Middle East and Africa. Hassan Allam Utilities, Hassan Allam Properties, and Hassan Allam Construction Saudi all inked agreements for projects in the Kingdom this year.

** We dive into where construction firms are expanding and the obstacles they are facing in a Hardhat published earlier this year.

FINANCIAL SERVICES-

#1- Thndr heads to UAE: Local digital investment platform Thndr received the greenlight from the Abu Dhabi Global Market Financial Services Regulatory Authority to expand into the UAE market.

#2- CI Capital is going to the GCC: Financial services group CI Capital announced its intentions earlier this year to establish an “on-the-ground presence” in the KSA and UAE.

#3- Non-banking financial services firm Contact Financial Holding opened its firstbranch in Dubai earlier this year, aiming to cater to Egyptian expats.

#4- Belmazad wants to expand regionally: Digital auctioning platform Belmazad announced plans to expand in Middle Eastern and African countries in the future.

#5- Paysky is also heading to KSA: Local digital payment platform Paysky plans to partner with Saudi investors to expand into the Saudi market in 1Q 2025 through its Yalla app.

#6- Dopay is looking to expand into Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE: Local fintech startup Dopay is planning to expand across MENA markets in 2025, with a particular focus on Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

EDUCATION-

#1- EFG Hermes launched a USD 300 mn Saudi Education Fund this year. The fund plans to deploy USD 300 mn over the next three years, with a primary focus on the Kingdom, alongside its ventures in the UAE and Bahrain.

#2- Palm Hills Developments will develop up to 15 new schools in KSA in partnership with Dallah Albaraka, with combined investments of USD 300 mn.

#3- Homegrown edtech startup Farid secured USD 250k to expand into Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

F&B-

#1- SEKEM subsidiary Isis Organic announced plans to open two factories in Saudi Arabia and Algeria. Its facility in the North African nation is slated for operations in 1H 2025.

#2- Budget supermarket chain Kazyon invested USD 144 mn to expand in Morocco. The company opened 120 stores in Morocco since beginning operations in the country in October 2023 and plans to open an additional 150 stores in the coming year.

#3- Local food solutions provider startup Brotinni pencilled in expansion into KSA andUAE in 3Q 2025. The startup announced its plans shortly after accelerator and consulting firm Entlaq Holding acquired a minority stake in the company.

#4 - Spiro Spathis’ Mymco is also planning to expand into the Gulf through franchises, using the region as an export base for neighboring countries.

LOGISTICS-

#1- Local digital shipping startup Nowlun earmarked fresh funds for expansion locally and in the Saudi market.

#2- Supply chain tech startup Qara announced it will expand its existing operations inthe Kingdom after securing USD 2.6 mn in funding.

MANUFACTURING-

Local industrial machinery manufacturer Simplex is looking to expand in the region, with plans to step into three new countries — Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria.

Gov’t imposes new personal car import rules to curb USD outflows + Car dealers to import USD 1.8 bn worth of cars next year

New regulations for importing cars: The Investment Ministry has issued a decision introducing new restrictions on personal car imports to limit USD outflows and support the localization of the auto industry. The decision caps personal imports at one car every five years and under it importers must provide proof of financial solvency and make the payment through an Egyptian bank.

The fine print: Only diplomats and Egyptians living abroad are allowed to pay for vehicles from outside the country. The rules exempt vehicles already at ports or with completed payments, as well as cars imported by embassies and select international organizations.

Car dealers weren’t happy: Sources told EnterpriseAM that Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib last week met with car dealers to discuss the amount of cars they are looking to import throughout next year, with talks suggesting car dealers will import cars worth some USD 1.8 bn next year. Dealers also raised alarms over personal import loopholes being exploited to bring in luxury cars for resale, skirting commercial rules and draining foreign currency reserves.

The latest in a number of steps taken: The Madbouly government has been working to close a loophole that some have used to import cars without paying the necessary fees. Earlier this year, the cabinet approved a draft decision to amend the executive regulations of the law that governs the rights of people with disabilities, changing up the vehicle import system for those with disabilities, and making it more difficult for people to abuse.

The new rules are being positioned as part of broader efforts to encourage local automotive manufacturing. A government source described the regulations as “governance for the sector” and a necessary step to streamline the market while fostering investments in domestic production. “We are seeing real progress in this area,” the source noted, reflecting optimism about the government’s localization strategy.

Remember: The Madbouly government has been working overtime in efforts to localize the auto industry, most recently introducing the Egyptian Automotive Industry Development Program, which will offer incentives to auto players with the aim of localizing the industry.

** READ MORE: We dive deeper into the efforts to localize Egypt’s auto industry in an Inside Industry published earlier this year. Check out the story here.

A chance to rebalance the market: Egyptian Automotive Dealers Association head Osama Abo El Magd told us that the move will rebalance the market and put an end to consumers playing car dealers — consumers have been profiting from unregulated imports at the expense of licensed agents and dealers.

Price hikes on the horizon? Montasser Zaytoon, member of the FEDCOC’s auto division, told EnterpriseAM that he expects car prices to climb next year as stricter car import rules reduce competition. He cautioned that supply shortages could fuel a resurgence of agents overpricing vehicles.

Flend secures Egypt’s first digital NBFI license for SME finance

Flend receives Egypt’s first digital NBFI license for SMEs: Small and medium enterprises-focused financing solutions platform Flend secured the Financial Regulatory Authority’s (FRA) first digital NBFI license for SME finance, according to a statement (pdf).

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Flend? The company offers tech enabled, data driven financing solutions to SMEs in Egypt. “By introducing innovative digital contracts and e-signatures, Flend is revolutionizing how SMEs access financing, setting a new standard in the industry,” the release read.

The license will allow Flend to provide access to affordable local bank funding and competitive financing rates, while maintaining strong governance and legal recourse on borrowers.

Strong backing: The digital platform is backed by Plus VC, Banque Misr, Digital Finance Holding, as well as prominent family offices in the region.

What they said: “Our strategy at Flend is to transform the SME financing landscape by addressing critical need for fair, fast and flexible SME financing, leveraging proprietary technology to provide seamless onboarding, advanced risk assessments, and efficient loan disbursements,” co-founder Nehal Helmy said.

FinMin deputy shares fresh details on the customs on imported mobile phones

Learning more about the new fees on phones imported through unofficial channels: Deputy Finance Minister for Taxes Sherif Al Kilani virtually joined El Hekaya’s Amr Adib (watch, runtime: 14:20) to explain the mechanism of applying the newly-introduced customs and tax fees on mobile phones imported through unofficial channels.

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ICYMI- Imported mobile phones will be subject to customs and tax fees totaling 38.5% — including a 5% development fee tax — as part of incoming government regulations to support the country’s mobile phone manufacturing localization efforts.

A 90-day window: Every person coming from abroad will be allowed to enter the country with their personal mobile phone, while every additional phone on the person will be subject to the new fees, Al Kilani said. If the fee is not settled within 90 days of entering the country the phone will be disconnected from network services.

But why? Some 95% of the mobile devices entering the country bypass official channels, Al Kilani said. “This results in an estimated monthly loss of USD 100 mn in uncollected customs.”

ALSO ON THE AIRWAVES- Adib covered (watch, runtime: 18:05) last week’s meeting between Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly and private sector heavyweights where they discussed the challenges facing the private sector and the measures private sector players want from the state in the years to come. Finally, “someone is speaking out and the government is listening,” Adib said, calling the government to “let the people speak up” and exit the economy in favor of the private sector. “We need to see the private sector in charge of 70% of the economy,” he added.

Suez Steel to operate two dry bulk berths

LOGISTICS-

Suez Steel to operate and maintain dry bulk berths at Adabiya Port under a USD 120 mn preliminary agreement inked with the Suez Canal Economic Zone, according to a statement. The two berths will have an initial capacity of 5 mn tons of dry bulk annually, with plans to double capacity to 10 mn tons in five years.

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India is on track to become second biggest IPO market in 2024

India has surpassed China as top market for company listings in Asia this year, after the value of listings in China fell some 86% this year from USD 48 bn last year, when it was the biggest market in the region, the Financial Times reports. Buoyant stock valuations of Indian equities fueled a surge in initial public offerings, with India’s National Stock Exchange surpassing both Dubai’s Nasdaq and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in primary listings by value, according to Dealogic and KPMG, putting it on track to become the world’s second-largest equity fundraising market, trailing only after the US.

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Behind the shift: India’s IPO boom has been driven by smaller transactions and spin-offs from multinational companies like Hyundai, as issuers rush to lock in valuations while market conditions remain favorable, the salmon-coloured paper said. “It’s been one of the busiest times in the history of Indian capital markets,” Kotak Investment Banking managing director V Jayasankar said, noting that the trend has been bolstered by significant household investments into local equity markets.

This shift reflects broader changes in Asian financial markets: Economic headwinds and tighter regulations designed “to achieve balance between primary and secondary market” have led to a slump in China’s IPO activity, stalling many companies’ plans to go public, BNP Paribas strategist Scarlett Liu said. On the other hand, Hong Kong has emerged as a bright spot, with equity raising surpassing USD 10 bn, led by high-profile transactions like Midea’s USD 4 bn secondary listing and supported by its appeal as an offshore financial hub for Chinese firms.

Is India a bubble waiting to burst? “Obviously the number of transactions has gone up but the average ticket size per transaction is down about 75-80% in the last two years,” said one Mumbai-based banker. “Now, what that tells me is [companies are thinking] ‘run for the hills, let’s try to cash in as quickly as we can, whatever we can while market conditions remain supportive.’” The country’s reporting weaker corporate earnings and slower GDP growth — with growth falling sharply to 5.4% in 3Q 2024 — which has raised concerns among foreign portfolio managers of a potentially frothy market, prompting them to pull some USD 11 bn from Indian equities in October and USD 2.5 bn in November.

Local bankers disagree, with many citing a healthy pipeline of IPOs and ample liquidity as signs that the market is still healthy with a lot of activity expected in the first half of 2025.

EGX30	29,958	-0.2% (YTD: +20.3%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 50.82	Sell 50.95
USD (CIB)	Buy 50.82	Sell 50.92
Interest rates (CBE)	27.25% deposit	28.25% lending
Tadawul	11,859	-0.3% (YTD: -0.6%)
ADX	9,328	-0.5% (YTD: -2.6%)
DFM	5,130	+0.4% (YTD: +26.4%)
S&P 500	5,971	-1.1% (YTD: +25.2%)
FTSE 100	8,150	+0.2% (YTD: +5.4%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,899	+0.8% (YTD: +8.4%)
Brent crude	USD 74.17	+1.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.38	+1.9%
Gold	USD 2,632	-0.8%
BTC	USD 95,197	+0.7% (YTD: +125.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.2% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 1.8 bn (55.1% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 20.3% YTD.

In the green: Juhayna (+2.5%), E-finance (+2.2%), Alexandria Container and Cargo Handling Co (+1.9%).

In the red: Beltone Holding (-2.2%), Elsewedy Electric (-2.1%), and B Investments Holding (-1.5%).

CALENDAR

2024

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City

2025

JANUARY

1 January (Wednesday): The minimum pension will increase to EGP 1.5k, and the maximum to EGP 11.6k

1 January (Wednesday): Launch of the urgent plan for the National Population and Development Strategy

8 January (Wednesday): Trilateral summit between Cyprus, Greece, and Egypt in Cairo to focus on energy, regional security, economy, and technology

14 January (Tuesday): The 4th edition of the Egypt Economic Summit will take place.

15 January (Wednesday): Launch of Egypt’s first joint-stock ship waste management company in Port Said.

28 January (Tuesday): Nigeria to inaugurate the USD 5 bn Africa Energy Bank in Abuja

28-29 January (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Early January 2025: Health Ministry finalizes partnership with Gustave Roussy to operate Dar El Salam Hospital.

January: CBE to launch InstaPay remittances for Egyptians abroad

January: Building permit applications in Egypt's new cities will go online

January 2025: Accor Group to open Sofitel Cairo Downtown Nile, the world’s largest Sofitel.

January 2025: Egyptian National Railways to launch tender for Tanta-Mansoura-Damietta railway line upgrades

January 2025: Food products will require food safety and validity certificates from the National Food Safety Authority (NFSA)

January 2025: Bavarian Delegation visit to Egypt

FEBRUARY

February: Orascom Pyramids Entertainment to bring total investments in the Pyramids Plateau to EGP 1.5 bn

2 February: Energy Day Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

17-19 February (Monday-Wednesday): EGYPES Technical Conference, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

18-19 February (Saturday-Sunday): German-Egyptian Joint Economic Committee meetings, Cairo, Egypt

20 February (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee's first meeting.

February 2025: BP to bring the second well of its Raven natural gas project online, with additional production capacity expected

MARCH

March 2025: Operation of phase one of the Amotope wind farm

March 2025: Alwaad Investment to inaugurate a new cold beverage plant with an annual production capacity of 14.5 mn units

March 2025: Al Ahly Sabbour to finalize preparations for its EGX listing, offering 20-25% of its shares, with an advisor to be tapped in early 2025

March-April 2025: The government plans to start collecting taxes on capital gains from EGX transactions

APRIL

7-10 April 2025 (Monday-Thursday): EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai, UAE

17 April 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting.

28-30 April 2025 (Monday-Wednesday): FDC Regional Digital Industry Summit will launch cybersecurity index.

April 2025: Saxony Delegation visit to Egypt

April 2025: Egypt to launch trial operations of the first phase of its USD 1.8 bn Egypt-Saudi electricity interconnection project, ahead of schedule

April 2025: Tahya Misr 1 container terminal to begin operations, adding 3.5 mn container capacity to the port.

MAY

22 May 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting.

May 2025: Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink) exhibition, Italy

May 2025: French rolling stock manufacturer Alstom will submit technical and financial bids for Cairo Metro Line 6

JUNE

June 2025: MPs approveextension of tax dispute resolution window until 30 June 2025, with potential for further extension

June 2025: Nissan and Honda finalise talks about possible merger to create the world’s third largest automobile company by sales.

June 2025: Coficab to complete its USD 88 mn automotive cable and electrical factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

JULY

10 July 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting.

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

July 2025: Etihad Airways to launch twice-weekly flights to Alamein

July 2025: Israel to begin increasing gas exports to Egypt from Chevron’s offshore Tamar field

AUGUST

28 August 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting.

August 2025: Tourism Development Authority to waive late payment penalties for land purchases if full installments are paid

SEPTEMBER

September 2025: Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay

September 2025: Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026

OCTOBER

2 October 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

NOVEMBER

20 November 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting.

DECEMBER

25 December 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting.

December 2025: Taqa Arabia and Voltalia to complete studies for repowering the 545-MW Zafarana wind farm with 1.1 GW of wind and 2.1 GW of solar power

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2025: ADQ to break ground on the development of Ras El Hekma

Early 2025: Al Ismaelia to begin working on two new hotels and hotel apartments in Downtown Cairo.

Early 2025: The Communications Ministry will unveil the second edition of its national AI strategy in early 2025

Early 2025: The Suez Canal Authority to launch an IPO for the Canal Company for Mooring and Lights (CCML) on the EGX.

Early 2025: Orange Egypt to launch 5G services, with EGP 10 bn planned for network upgrades.

Early 2025: BP to begin drilling at the King Mariout Offshore concession.

Early 2025: Jinbei Royal Egypt to begin local assembly of 3k Jinbei vehicles, including the country’s first electric cargo van and microbus

1Q 2025: The Egyptian-Italian business forum

1Q 2025: Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib to visit Italy

1Q 2025: Eipico’s biopharma plant to begin operations

1Q 2025: Finance Ministry to launch public consultations on its tax policy document

1Q 2025: Egypt to sign trade agreements with Bahrain and UAE to slash customs clearance times

1Q 2025: Government to launch EUR 271 mn green industry program to cut emissions

1Q 2025: Egypt-Azerbaijan joint committee to meet to bolster trade and investment ties

1Q 2025: Turkish Automotive Manufacturers Association and Turkish Contractors Association to visit Egypt following an invitation from the Investment Minister

1Q 2025: One of four companies, including Abu Qir Fertilizers, Mopco, Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company, and a Saudi-affiliated firm, to be selected for the USD 450 mn redevelopment of Delta Fertilizers

1Q 2025: GV Auto to begin local production of FAW Group’s cheapest EV model.

1Q 2025: Alkan Auto to launch BAIC subsidiary Arcfox’s EVs to the market.

1Q 2025: Dynamic Distribution to launch a new competitively-priced Fiat model in Egypt.

1Q 2025: BP to drill two USD 160 mn exploratory gas wells in the West Delta.

1Q 2025: Port Said for Engineering Works to begin construction on a USD 80 mn aluminum foil factory in the SCZone, targeting initial production of 60k tons annually.

1Q 2025: Pearl Polyurethane Systems to start production at its EGP 100 mn polyurethane factory in the Sokhna Industrial Zone.

1Q 2025: Sumitomo Electric to officially open its EUR 22 mn cable factory in Tenth of Ramadan, with production set to begin next month.

1Q 2025: Construction of the USD 600 mn natural gas treatment plant in the Western Desert’s Meleiha concession to wrap up, followed by a pilot run.

1Q 2025: El Araby Group and Sharp to break ground on a USD 50 mn fridge and freezer manufacturing plant in the Quweisna zone.

1Q 2025: Hangzhou Henneway Travel Goods to begin production at its USD 50 mn factory in the West Qantara Industrial Zone

1Q 2025: BP to drill two USD 160 mn exploratory gas wells in the West Delta

2Q 2025: Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to introduce derivatives on the EGX

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations

2Q 2025: Hassan Allam to build infrastructure for AD Ports' Noatum terminal at Safaga

2Q 2025: EgyptSat Auto to start production at its EV factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

3Q 2025: AMEA Power to bring 500 MW Amunet wind farm online in Ras Ghareb

4Q 2025: Abou Ghaly Motors to introduce the Subaru Solterra to the market

4Q 2025: Two new projects in food manufacturing and home textiles to begin operations in the Qantara West Industrial Zone

1H 2025: Digital Financial Identity Company will launch an electronic bank account opening service

1H 2025: The Egyptian-US Investment Forum.

1H 2025: Internal Trade Development Authority (ITDA) to establishfour logistics zones with EGP 18-20 bn investments

1H 2025: Natco to launch Chinese firm Neta Auto’s EV models.

1H 2025: OCI Global to complete the sale of its entire methanol business to Methanex for USD 2.05 bn.

1H 2025: Egypt and the UAE to begin construction of a USD 3 bn petroleum logistics zone at Al Hamra Port

1H 2025: HoldiPharma to list 25-30% stakes in Misr Pharma and Chemical Industries Development (CID) on the EGX

1H 2025: Korra Energi to list up to 20% stake on the EGX

1H 2025: Smart Villages Development and Management Company plans to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX

1H 2025: Halliburton to bring three gas wells online as part of the Burullus project.

1H 2025: Chevron to begin gas production from the offshore Nargis gas field, initially producing 600 mn cf.

1H 2025: Nile Recycling to launch USD 20 mn PET recycling facility in Ain Sokhna, targeting an annual capacity of 22k tons and reducing carbon emissions by 40k tons

2H 2025: National Printing Company to make its EGX debut after delayed IPO plans

2H 2025: Tabarak Holding to list 30% of its shares on the EGX

2H 2025: Turkish apparel company Denim Rise to open a garment manufacturing facility

2H 2024: Hi-Tech Apparel to break ground on a USD 20 mn sportswear factory in the SCZone

2H 2025: Eni to drill two new wells in the Zohr field with USD 160 mn in investments

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

Mid-2025: SN Automotive to launch three locally assembled models — one electric and two gasoline-powered — in Egypt

Mid-2025: Suez’s USD 1.8 bn coal and diesel production complex, developed by Enppi and Petrojet, to be completed

Mid-2025: Wataneya and Safi to debut on the EGX

End of 2025: The Egypt Digital Industrial Platform will expand to include additional services for manufacturers, including the issuance of licenses, building permits, and industrial records

End of 2025: An unnamed Chinese company and the state-owned Arab Organization for Industrialization (AOI) to begin production at a USD 360 mn tire factory in the SCZone.

End of 2025: A consortium including Redcon Properties and Al Baraka Bank to launch a local real estate investment fund with over EGP 1 bn in initial investments

Late 2025: Baron Hotels to open a new hotel in Sharm El Sheikh and debut its first international property in Zanzibar with 150 luxury suites

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document

2025: Nafeza to integrate air cargo into its digital customs platform, further streamlining trade logistics

2025: Africa50 completes 42.9% stake acquisition in Raya Data Centers for USD 15 mn to fund construction of a USD 35 mn Tier III data center.

2025: MM Group for Industry and International Trade is set to launch 16 new Tata vehicle models locally.

2025: China to issue USD 411 bn in special treasury bonds

2025: El Attal Holding to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX

2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Development (ACUD) to launch its EGX debut, offering 5-10% of its shares.**

2025: Basata Holding for Financial Investments to offer 25% stake on the EGX as part of a plan to double its capital to EGP 1.4 bn.**

2025: Hilton Cairo Nile Maadi to open early in the year, alongside debuts of Tapestry Collection and Curio Collection by Hilton.

2025: Palm Hills and Marriott to launch The Ritz-Carlton Residences in West Cairo, featuring 150 branded units across 45 acres

2025: Jaz Hotel Group to set up two new hotels in North Coast, two in Hurghada, and two in Marsa Alam

2025: Sunrise Resorts & Cruises to add 4k hotel rooms to its hotels capacity.

2025: Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (ECHEM) to complete studies and kick off production of Egypt’s first sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).

2025: Polaris Parks to begin development of the industrial park in New October City

2025: EgyptAlum to launch a USD 100 mn foil production line with a 50k-ton annual capacity

2025: Honor to begin operations at its proposed smartphone manufacturing facility in Egypt, with an initial investment of USD 10 mn

2025: Indorama and Phosphate Misr to begin implementation of the USD 400-500 mn phosphate fertilizers plant in Ain Sokhna

FY 2025-26: Egypt to issue its first EGP-denominated sovereign sukuk to finance public investments outside the general budget

FY 2025-26: The government to begin introducing cash-based subsidies on a trial basis in select areas of the country

2025-2027: EUR 4 bn in concessional loans to follow as part of a EUR 7.4 bn package

2026

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2026: Baron Hotels to launch two hotels in Egypt with 950 rooms, followed by another with 750 rooms

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations

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