{"id":78517,"date":"2023-07-18T01:06:42","date_gmt":"2023-07-18T01:06:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/climate\/2023\/07\/18\/enterprise-explains-impacts-of-el-nino-on-mena-region\/"},"modified":"2023-07-18T01:06:42","modified_gmt":"2023-07-18T01:06:42","slug":"enterprise-explains-impacts-of-el-nino-on-mena-region","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/climate\/2023\/07\/18\/enterprise-explains-impacts-of-el-nino-on-mena-region\/","title":{"rendered":"Enterprise Explains: Impacts of El Ni\u00f1o on MENA region"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a id=\"tldr-story-08\" class=\"content-anchor\"><\/a><strong> Enterprise Explains: The why and when of El Ni\u00f1o: <\/strong>One of the most closely studied weather phenomena around the world today, El Ni\u00f1o is a cyclical naturally occuring weather phenomenon affecting different regions around the world due to the unusual warming of the sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean every two to seven years. Recent research has shown that its impacts are likely to <a href=\"https:\/\/research.noaa.gov\/2020\/11\/09\/new-research-volume-explores-future-of-enso-under-influence-of-climate-change\/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CExtreme%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20and%20La,stronger%20than%20they%20are%20today.%E2%80%9D\">hit harder and more frequently<\/a> as the planet continues to heat up and global surface temperatures <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/weather\/learn-about\/weather\/oceans\/el-nino#:~:text=The%20name%20'El%2520Ni%25C3%25B1o'%2520is,above%2520the%2520long%252Dterm%2520average.\">will rise by about 0.1 \u00b0C<\/a> during the years the phenomenon occurs, with some scientists warning global average temperatures could tip off the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2023\/jun\/02\/el-nino-may-push-heating-past-15c-urgent-action-avert-catastrophe\">1.5 \u00b0C limit<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>As the effects of El Ni\u00f1o become more severe and far reaching for mns of people and <\/strong><strong>various ecosystems<\/strong>, interest in understanding how it affects food availability, fisheries, wildfires, coral bleaching, extreme rainfall, and other components of the climate system has grown. Countries are looking for ways to adapt and build resilience to mitigate the impacts on those occurrences. In part one of this two-part explainer, we discuss with experts what to expect in terms of weather-induced changes in our region.<\/p>\n<p><strong>We\u2019re experiencing El Ni\u00f1o after a four-year absence: <\/strong>\u201cStrong anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific regions have already been identified, and they are becoming stronger every day,\u201d climate researcher at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ictp.it\/\">International Centre for Theoretical Physics<\/a> Muhammad Abid told Enterprise Climate, adding that its cascading effects usually peak in the winter months. Climate scientist and head of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ku.ac.ae\/engeos\">Environmental and Geophysical Sciences Lab<\/a> at Dubai\u2019s Khalifa University Diana Francis told us this will be a strong El Ni\u00f1o year, pointing out that last month was already recognized as the warmest June on record, \u201ceven before the impacts of El Ni\u00f1o start to be felt worldwide.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>So how exactly does El Ni\u00f1o occur? <\/strong>In normal years, the permanent winds moving from east-to-west around the Earth\u2019s equatorial region \u2014 called trade winds \u2014 push warm surface waters in the eastern Pacific westwards, away from Central and South America and towards South East Asia and Australia, Abid explains. This makes surface water temperatures in the west relatively warmer than in the east. However, when the trade winds become weaker than normal, warm waters accumulate in the east and \u201ccreate a patch of warmth over the tropical Pacific,\u201d Francis explains. This breaks the neutral cycle in the Pacific and triggers El Ni\u00f1o. With the cycle reversed, the warm air initially accumulating near Asia and Australia, shifts towards Central and South America, making the former wetter than usual, and the latter dryer than usual.<\/p>\n<p><strong>It's part of a larger phenomenon: <\/strong>While El Ni\u00f1o often steals the spotlight given its role in exacerbating global warming, it is considered the \u201cwarm phase\u201d of the bigger El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) atmospheric occurrence. The \u201ccool phase\u201d is represented by the La Ni\u00f1a phenomenon, when \u201cstrong trade winds are present which causes warm waters at the surface to be displaced westward and replaced by cooler waters from the bottom\u201d causing the east \u201cacific water temperatures to become cooler than the average. The world has been in the La Ni\u00f1a phase for the last three years, according to Abid.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Despite being largely understudied in MENA, it impacts our region: <\/strong>El Ni\u00f1o has affected 71% of drought years in the southern and southwestern parts of the Arabian Peninsula, and La Ni\u00f1a was linked to 38% of this area\u2019s flood years, a <a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/1477.pdf\">study (pdf)<\/a> by Abid and other researchers from King AbdulAziz University\u2019s (KAU) Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research (CECCR) found. \u201cAlthough it is not surprising that ENSO affects precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula, its apparently strong effect is,\u201d co-author and climate and earth modeling expert Georgiy Stenchikov told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natureasia.com\/en\/nmiddleeast\/article\/10.1038\/nmiddleeast.2018.5#:~:text=They%20found%20that%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o,of%20this%20area%27s%20flood%20years.\">Nature<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>MENA and GCC will see shifting weather patterns soon: <\/strong>Intensifying El Ni\u00f1o conditions may bring heavy and more frequent rainfalls over the Gulf countries during the upcoming winter season, Abid told us. Nile Basin countries, including Egypt, will experience more droughts. \u201cDuring El Ni\u00f1o years there is an increase in wind speed, coupled with dry and warm wind coming from the desert area of the Arabian Peninsula, blowing toward Egypt,\u201d Canada-based climate researcher and water resources consultant Shereif Mahmoud tells Enterprise Climate. This wind moves the moist air away and replaces it with dry hot air, which increases the rate of evaporation over the Nile basin countries leading to a climate favorable for increasing drought, he added. The increase in air temperature and surface humidity in turn increases human thermal comfort indices, which poses a high health risk including difficulty breathing, he said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Existing drought conditions will be exacerbated during El Ni\u00f1o years: <\/strong>One <a href=\"https:\/\/www.preventionweb.net\/publication\/climate-variability-drought-and-drought-management-moroccos-agricultural-sector\">study (pdf)<\/a> published in 2016 found that ENSO had some impacts on the 2015\u20132016 droughts in Morocco, which could increase in the coming years as Morocco faces tougher conditions that have led it and its neighboring countries to ration the nation's water consumption. According to the researchers at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldweatherattribution.org\/extreme-april-heat-in-spain-portugal-morocco-algeria-almost-impossible-without-climate-change\/\">World Weather Attribution<\/a>, Morocco and Algeria are expected to hit record temperatures this summer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Enterprise Explains: The why and when of El Ni\u00f1o: One of the most closely studied weather phenomena around the world today, El Ni\u00f1o is a cyclical naturally occuring weather phenomenon affecting different regions around the world due to the unusual warming of the sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean every two to seven [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":78518,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[424],"tags":[57,1756,423,11,230,55,1064],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-78517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-enterprise-explains","tag-climate-change","tag-el-nino","tag-enterprise-explains","tag-enterpriseclimate","tag-gcc","tag-mena","tag-north-africa","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"680f2e7e-93a5-401f-8562-ffdd0456b34b","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/1389.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[78499],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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