Good morning, friends. We have a brisk issue as we inch closer to the weekend with some exciting news on the nuclear fusion front, but first, here’s an update from across the pond…

THE BIG STORY OUTSIDE THE REGION- Plastic treaty talks continue in Ottawa: A heated debate is being stirred by the “Like-Minded Countries” and the petrochemical lobby at the fourth round of negotiations on the first-ever global plastics treaty as countries race to hammer out a final agreement in December. The group — which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia and China — is pushing for any upcoming treaty to center on tracking plastic waste. Delegates will be split into working groups this week to discuss the contents of the treaty and how it should be enforced, the chair of the Ottawa negotiations told the newswire. Every day, the “equivalent of 2k garbage trucks full of plastic are dumped into the world’s oceans, rivers, and lakes.” The story grabbed ink in Reuters, AP, The Guardian, and Foreign Policy.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- AFC joins developers for Xlinks Morocco-UK interconnector project:Africa FinanceCorporation (AFC) is set to join the Xlinks Morocco-UK interconnector project as a developer, Bloomberg reports, citing CEO Samaila Zubairu. AFC will join France’s TotalEnergies, General Electric, and Abu Dhabi’s Taqa in backing the 3.8k km interconnection project linking Morocco with the UK. UK-based investment company Xlinks First recently updated guidance on construction costs and the strike price for the project which will now cost an estimated GBP 22-24 bn (USD 27-30 bn).

#2- GCC oil companies shouldn’t suffer (too much) from going green: Gulf national oil companies are expected to spend around USD 15-25 bn annually on low-carbon investments until 2026 to match global counterparts for carbon reduction, according to an S&P report. These companies likely have the capacity to absorb the extra investments for net-zero emissions goals while maintaining strong credit metrics, S&P says.

Where the money will come from: While national oil companies typically maintain strong balance sheets and can finance their own projects, S&P estimates that the banking system and capital markets will have a role in financing the energy transition. However, while GCC banks “will have the capacity” to provide funding for national oil companies’ low-carbon investments, S&P notes that these companies “are typically financed outside the local banking systems.”

#3- Expensive EVs put EU’s 2050 climate goals at risk: The EU’s plan to ban new petrol car sales by 2035 faces challenges due to the unaffordability of EVs and the lack of credible alternative fuel options jeopardizing its goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, Reuters reports, citing the European Court of Auditors (ECA). The bloc aims to have 30 mn zero-emission cars on the roads by 2030 to help meet its target.

The EU is over-reliant on imports: High production costs mean the EU needs to rely on imports — mainly from China, which dominates in EV battery output — in order to meet its goal, the newswire writes. European carmakers are racing to develop affordable EV models, but EV purchases are currently boosted by subsidies, and charging infrastructure remains inadequate.

The local industry faces even more obstacles: Alternative fuels like biofuels and hydrogen are not commercially viable in the EU, which has also failed to reduce real CO2 emissions from cars. Despite stringent standards, conventional cars emit similar CO2 levels to those from over a decade ago, partly due to an increase in car weight, according to ECA member Nikolaos Milionis.

On the flipside, sales numbers seem promising: EV and plug-in hybrid car sales are projected to reach a new global record in 2024 with 17 mn units sold, which would be a y-o-y increase of over 20%, according to a new report (pdf) by the International Energy Agency. Most EVs are expected to cost the same as their petrol counterparts by 2030 due to declining prices.

#4-US expected to drop hydrogen from plan to slash GHG emissions: The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to exclude green hydrogen from its plan to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the power sector to avoid legal challenges if the technology fails to achieve commercial viability, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources. This decision reflects doubts within the US government that green hydrogen will be developed at a rapid enough pace to be used as a significant tool for decarbonizing the electricity industry. The EPA is expected to announce its final rule by Thursday.

REMEMBER- The initial proposal aimed to slash emissions for existing plants: The EPA unveiled a proposal in May 2023 that set quotas for emissions from operational power plants across the US. It required energy companies to use carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) infrastructure to push down their CO2 emissions in a bid to mitigate some 617 mn tons of CO2 equivalent between 2028 and 2042.

Dropping hydrogen could enhance the rule’s legal strength: Critics have expressed concerns about the viability of the technology by the time the regulations for gas and coal plants came into effect in the 2030s, according to Reuters. This rule is part of a series of regulations the Biden administration aims to finalize to prevent potential reversal under the Congressional Review Act if Donald Trump is reelected.

DATA POINT-

At least 10 mn tons of copper will be needed in the next decade to support the growing AI, EV power infrastructure, and automation sectors, commodity trader Trafigura told Reuters. Increased production of EVs, solar panels, and grid investment in China, along with a rise in manufacturing activity, has further boosted demand for copper in power and construction industries.

Copper has surged to USD 10k per ton on the London Metal Exchange due to increased demand plus tight supplies of refined copper metal and concentrate, Reuters writes. Analysts have revised their copper market balance forecasts, with expectations of significant shortages estimated at around 26 mn tons this year.

OUR NEXT FORUM IN CAIRO-

Foreign investors are falling in love with Egypt again… Foreign investors we speak with (debt, equity, and strategic alike) have growing appetite for Egypt. They’re buying into local debt, eyeing promising shares, and committing bns of USD to both new ventures here and the growth of their existing businesses. They like the Egypt story that’s taking shape after the float of the EGP, and its competitive advantages are clear to many of them: It’s a massive consumer opportunity and a regional export hub of tomorrow.

The Enterprise Optimism Forum 2024 will do exactly what it says on the tin: Spark conversations about a future that sees Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the the UAE at the heart of a more vital Middle East economy — and provide an early, actionable roadmap for those who are “long Egypt.”

We’ll be talking with you about the agenda over the coming couple of weeks. It features speakers from Egypt and abroad who are future-proofing their businesses and angling to capture tomorrow’s opportunities — and who aren’t afraid to answer some tough questions.

** Interested in attending? Tap or click here to let us know. Seating is limited.

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YOU’RE READING ENTERPRISE CLIMATE, the essential MENA publication for senior execs who care about the world’s most important industry. We’re out Monday through Thursday by 9am Cairo / 10am Riyadh / 11am UAE.

EXPLORE MORE OF ENTERPRISE ON THE WEB —tap or click here to read EnterpriseAM, EnterprisePM, Enterprise Climate, Enterprise Logistics, and The Weekend Edition on our powerful new website packed with reader-friendly features.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Oman will host the Oman Sustainability Week from Sunday, 28 April to Thursday, 2 May in Muscat. The event will focus on exploring investment opportunities and implementing best practices in sustainability within the energy, water, and environmental sectors.

Italy will host the G7 Ministerial Meeting on Climate, Energy and Environment from Sunday, 28 April to Tuesday, 30 April in Piemonte. The meeting will focus on pressing climate, environment, and energy challenges.

Saudi Arabia will host the Saudi Water Forum from Monday, 29 April to Wednesday, 1 May in Riyadh. The forum will facilitate dialogue among water sector leaders, experts, and stakeholders to address challenges and share expertise. It will feature presentations by key entities in the water industry focusing on integrated solutions, showcasing successful water projects, and promoting investment opportunities for sector development.

The UAE will host The Electric Vehicle Innovation Summit from Monday, 20 May to Wednesday, 22 May in Abu Dhabi. The event will see industry leaders come together to discuss sustainable mobility and tapping into groundbreaking advancements in electric vehicles while engaging with key decision-makers.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.