AND IT’S A WRAP- COP28’s revised draft passes: Following two weeks of negotiations that ran into overtime, the representatives of the 198 participating countries at COP28 signed the final document of the Global Stocktake (pdf) yesterday morning shortly after we hit send on our last issue, according to a statement. The final document underwent several changes in wording and targets, so let’s unpack what the revisions mean.

The approved text to the “beginning of the end”: The final agreement marks the first time in the summit’s history to see fossil fuels directly addressed in the final text. The revised text called for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner,” which was hailed as “the beginning of the post-fossil era,” the EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said.

Not a phase out, buta transition: Despite sidestepping a total phase out — which over 100 countries had been rallying for — the final text was able to drop the optional language of suggested changes, but it came at the expense of a more diluted version calling on “transitioning away” from fossil fuels. The text also called for the phase out of “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible.”

Coal is here to stay: While the text kept the phasedown of coal as a goal, the adopted agreement skipped out on a date to achieve this phasedown or specific targets as to how this phasedown could come about. It also left a caveat for new coal-power generation projects.

But we have a more defined goal for methane: The text called for “accelerating and reducing” methane emissions by 2030 without stating by how much. This current goal is a slight regression from the goals in the previous drafts that called for reducing methane by 30% by 2030 and by 40% by 2035.

A sneaky last minute addition didn’t go unnoticed: A new provision — which had not appeared in any of the previous drafts — disclosed that “transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition,” giving a green light to natural gas expansion, despite its damaging environmental impacts that some studies have identified can be as harmful as coal.

Loopholes upon loopholes: Critics view the new provision — together with the call to accelerate carbon capture — as evidence of “the influence of petrostates in the half measures and loopholes included in the final agreement,” US vice president Al Gore said. “The resolution is marred by loopholes that offer the fossil fuel industry numerous escape routes, relying on unproven, unsafe technologies,” the Climate Action Network had echoed the sentiment.

OVER ON THE FINANCE FRONT-

Loss and damage is now a matter of finance: The now operational Loss and Damage Fund was moved to the section under finance, where other climate finance mechanisms and funds are mentioned. Despite the significant official recognition of the fund as a means of finance, the section of the fund did not address the developed countries obligations nor the scale of the required loss and damage which is estimated to be over USD 400 bn annually. The section also did not refer to prioritizing funding for local communities, nor did it mention human rights, gender-responsiveness, the rights of Indigenous Peoples, youth and children.

The financing provisions fall short: The text’s stance on climate finance is “worrying” as it fell short of demanding developed countries commit to “provide public, new and additional, grant-based concessional finance,” ACT Alliance Climate Justice lead Julius Mbatia said, referring to the text’s exclusion of language that places responsibility on developed countries. The adopted text also excluded two paragraphs in previous drafts on “taking into account the priorities and needs” of vulnerable countries and ensuring that all finance flows are in line with the Paris Agreements. “The missing element, however, was a clear financial package for countries embarking on their energy transition as well as clarity about how to fill the adaptation finance gap,” E3G Senior Policy Advisor Laura Reyes said.

IN SUMMARY-

Here are the eight actions the text put forward to keep the 1.5C goal alive:

  • Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030;
  • Rapidly phasing down unabated coal and limitations on permitting new and unabated coal power generation;
  • Accelerating efforts globally towards net zero emissions energy systems, utilizing zero and low carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century;
  • Accelerating zero and low emissions technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies, including such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, and low carbon hydrogen production, so as to enhance efforts towards substitution of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems.
  • Reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science;
  • Accelerating and substantially reducing non-CO2 emissions, including, in particular, methane emissions globally by 2030;
  • Accelerating emissions reductions from road transport through a range of pathways, including development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero and low emission vehicles;
  • Phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible.

But is the 1.5C target even within reach now? Scientists are arguing that the agreement is not binding enough “to keep the planet from heating 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures by the end of the decade.” To keep the 1.5C goal alive, countries would need to “urgently reduce domestic emissions but also the delivery of significant climate finance,” chair of the Least Developed Countries Group Madeleine Diouf Sarr said. The text’s non-binding language, coupled with the COP28 pledges representing only a third of the funds needed, makes it likely that the world will surpass the 1.5C limit.

Small island states are not satisfied: The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) lead Negotiator Anne Rasmussen accepted the final draft stating that there are “many good elements” including “a clear runway with milestones for strengthening Party efforts to prepare and submit enhanced NDCs through to 2025.” However, the alliance also called out the “litany of loopholes” in the text, and questioned the efficacy of the good elements. “We have made an incremental advancement over business as usual when what we really needed is an exponential step-change in our actions and support,” Rasmussen said.

So, where do we go from here? It’s all up to the governments in the end: It all depends on implementation, according Al Jaber and for once, Al Gore agrees, saying that “whether this is a turning point that truly marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era depends on the actions that come next and the mobilization of finance required to achieve them.”

The most impacted got the short end of the stick, with polluters moving on: “The US will get away lightly from this COP, having pledged just over USD 20 mn in new finance for the poor world, and with its position as the world’s biggest oil and gas producer intact. China will continue to expand its coal production as well as renewable energy, and India’s coal industry will also have little to fear,” the Guardian reports. “The hypocrisy of wealthy nations, particularly the US, as they continue to expand fossil fuel operations massively while merely paying lip service to the green transition, stands exposed,” Climate Action Network said.

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