Why a clean energy transition is the only way forward for climate resilience in MENA: As the MENA region continues to be one of the world’s regions most vulnerable to the hazardous effects of climate change, an urgency emerges to push with energy transition to help alleviate the impact of the ongoing crisis, a recent IEA report on MENA climate resilience showed. A warmer planet has pushed temperatures across the region up 0.46 C per decade, which is well above the world average of 0.18 C. A significant shift in rainfall patterns has also worsened an existing water scarcity in some nations, with droughts in Morocco and Tunisia. The UAE, Iran, KSA, Qatar, Oman and Yemen have also experienced intense flooding.

Water scarcity is a major culprit: The total rainfall fell by c. 8.3% per decade in the period between 1980-2022, and a further decrease in rainfall is projected while increasing in the Arabian Peninsula. A scarcity of water from the drop in rainfall in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries is set to negatively affect fossil-fueled power plants, which account for 91% of their electricity and generation and depend on freshwater for cooling. Most of the fossil-power plants in those regions are forecast to see a drier climate in the coming decade.

Extreme heatwaves will pose a challenge to energy resilience: Soaring temperatures are fuelling fears over energy system resilience in the region, with temperatures in MENA by 2081-2100 in the region would still go beyond global averages in a low-emissions and high-emissions scenario. Peak electricity demand triggered by soaring temperatures could also cut back on the efficiency of power generation and networks and increase pressure on electricity supply. The operations of natural gas-fired power plants, which hold the largest share of electricity generation in the region at 74% could take a hit due to warmer air mass flow entering the gas turbine compressor. The susceptibility could be even higher in the Arabian Peninsula, with 90% of installed gas-fired capacity set to be impacted.

Solar and wind could take a hit from the heat: Solar and wind power generation become less efficient during extreme heat events due to the equipment in panels and turbines are designed to operate in temperatures of around 25C. High temperatures also impact output, power lines, transmission capacity, and trigger losses. Around 90% of wind power plants would be vulnerable to an increase of 40 hot days annually under a high-emissions scenario.

What needs to happen: Energy suppliers need to rethink their designs for wind power plants and pursue innovative cooling technologies for solar PV to help push climate resilience in the region, according to the IEA. Both governments and consumers need to shift towards energy efficient improvements in used cooling devices to help accommodate growing electricity peak demand.

Some country specifics: Rising temperatures in Egypt — where the IEA sees a higher level of warming than the world average by 2100 — could exert stress on power generation from solar PV and wind and natural gas, according to a separate IEA report. In Morocco, soaring temperatures could also pressure the country’s capacity for power generation and distribution, according to a country-specific IEA report. It outlined several measures to ensure a climate-resilient energy transition in the country, including a dedicated sectoral plan for the energy sector and specific strategies for the sector against climate-driven catastrophes.

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